Demand recovery and supply constraints push us inflation upward again
With the improvement of American society's acceptance of the epidemic and the improvement of the response system, the impact of the epidemic on American economy and society began to ease, and the economy gradually improved. The loose money of the United States adopts the policy of direct rescue and large subsidies, which plays a direct role in maintaining demand growth.
Although the CPI is high, the Fed's expectation of raising interest rates is still weak
Whether the Fed's monetary policy turns to tightening or not depends on the nature of inflation and changes in the financial system; If the economic recovery lingers, the Fed's policy shift will have to consider recovery and employment, especially the repeated epidemic, and the space for the fed to tighten policy is limited. At present, the Fed is still skeptical about the continuation of inflation. It is generally believed that since the economy has not returned to normal, the economic recovery will not bring inflation to break the target standard line for a long time; Shrinking the balance sheet or raising interest rates is more a response to changes in the financial system.
Inflation may peak and the inflection point is approaching
Temporary supply chain bottlenecks have gradually improved in the short term, especially the problem of port congestion. With the increasing attention of the whole society and the introduction of response measures for the original rigid management system, the situation tends to ease; With the weakening of the impact of the epidemic on western social and economic life, the contradiction in the supply chain caused by the original anti epidemic blockade measures is also improving.
