Event: in December 2021, both the Politburo meeting and the central economic work conference emphasized "promoting the construction of affordable housing"; Previously, in July, the State Council issued the opinions on accelerating the development of indemnificatory rental housing.
Core view: the construction of affordable housing is expected to accelerate in 2022, but compared with the shed reform, its investment intensity is low and the actual investment scale is relatively limited, which may only drive the real estate investment by 1-2 percentage points in 2022; To really stabilize the real estate, we need to further loosen the policy and pay attention to the pull of affordable housing on the green building industry chain.
1、 Affordable housing is listed as the first real estate policy at the Politburo meeting, and it is expected to accelerate in 2022
Affordable housing was listed as the first real estate policy at the Politburo meeting. 12.6 the Politburo meeting put "promoting the construction of affordable housing" at the top of the real estate policy, highlighting the important position of affordable housing in the real estate work in 2022. Earlier, in July, the State Council issued the opinions on accelerating the development of affordable rental housing. In October, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development made it clear that affordable rental housing is a key task of housing construction during the 14th Five Year Plan period, all pointing to the improvement of the importance of affordable housing. Affordable housing is an important starting point for steady growth and common prosperity, and is expected to accelerate in 2022. From the statement of the central economic work conference, 2020 is to "attach great importance to the construction of affordable rental housing", and 2021 emphasizes "promoting the construction of affordable housing", which indicates that the construction of affordable housing will enter the actual development stage in 2022, mainly because it can not only be used as a grasp of stabilizing real estate and economy, but also an important grasp of optimizing the supply of public services and promoting common prosperity.
2、 Compared with the shed reform, how much does this round of guaranteed real estate drive real estate investment? 1. Shed reform and affordable housing are important components of affordable housing projects in China. There are five main differences between them:
Shed reform and affordable housing are important parts of China's affordable housing project. Shed reform is a transformation action to improve the living conditions of shantytowns; Affordable housing is a long-term system established to solve the housing difficulties of low - and middle-income people, including affordable rental housing, public rental housing and common property right housing. Indemnificatory rental housing is the focus of indemnificatory housing construction during the 14th Five Year Plan period. The later analysis still focuses on indemnificatory rental housing.
Compared with the shed reform, affordable housing (affordable rental housing) has five major differences: 1) different demand groups: the shed reform is aimed at the residents of dilapidated shantytowns, and the affordable housing is aimed at the new citizens and young people with housing difficulties; 2) different implementation subjects: the shed reform is completely led by the government and realized through physical resettlement or monetary compensation (monetization of shed reform); affordable housing is supported by the government, and new construction and stock transformation are jointly supplied; 3) different implementation regions: shed reform is implemented in most cities across the country, with a large scale, and affordable housing is mainly implemented in large cities with net population inflow; 4) different duration: shed reform is a short-term centralized action, and affordable housing is a long-term mechanism; 5) different property rights: housing under shed reform The owner has the property right, and the lessee of the affordable housing has no property right.
2. Shed reform has a great driving effect; The range of real estate investment may be 1-2 percentage points, which should not be overestimated. Shed reform has a huge pull on real estate investment, which should be about 9%. From 2016 to 2020, more than 23 million sets of shed renovation were started, with a total investment of about 7 trillion, about 9% of the real estate investment in the same period. It should be noted that the actual pull of shed reform on real estate investment should be smaller, because in the middle and later stage of shed reform monetization, residents buy stock housing rather than new housing. Calculation method of real estate investment driven by guaranteed real estate: at present, the analysis of the investment scale of affordable rental housing in the market is mostly calculated from the construction cost, and the implicit assumption is that it all comes from new construction and is complete housing, which should not be in line with the actual situation. We calculate it from two aspects: preparation quantity and investment intensity:
The number of ready-made houses may be about 40% of that of shed reform: many cities have announced the plan for the preparation of affordable rental houses during the 14th Five Year Plan period, which has exceeded 5 million units at present, and it is expected that the national plan for the preparation of affordable rental houses during the 14th Five Year Plan period may exceed 9 million units.
The investment intensity may be about 1 / 3 of the shed reform: according to the data of the Ministry of housing and urban rural development, in 2021, 40 cities across the country plan to raise 936000 new affordable rental housing units, 720000 units have been started from January to September, with an investment of 77.5 billion yuan. According to this calculation, the investment of each indemnificatory rental housing is about 108000 yuan, only about 1 / 3 of the shed reform.
The investment intensity of affordable housing is weaker than that of shed reform. There are two main reasons: affordable housing is obtained by building new housing and raising stock housing, and the cost is relatively low; The multi City preparation plan includes the number of rooms and beds, rather than a complete set of houses. Calculation results: affordable housing may drive real estate investment by 1-2 percentage points in 2022. Assuming that 9.25 million new affordable rental housing units will be built throughout the country during the 14th Five Year Plan period, about 1.75 million units will be started in 2022, and the investment amount of a single unit is 108000 yuan, the total investment amount is about 250 billion yuan, driving the real estate investment by about 1.4 percentage points.
3、 Affordable real estate is difficult to reverse the downward trend of real estate, and further loosening of real estate regulation is a necessary option
Overall, the impact of real estate on real estate investment should not be overestimated. It is difficult to reverse the downward trend of real estate alone. To truly stabilize real estate, policies may need to be further loosened, such as accelerating the issuance of mortgage loans, development loans, etc.
In terms of structure, policy factors have a greater impact on affordable housing construction. Affordable housing construction should pay more attention to the transformation of green buildings (such as green building materials, steel structures, prefabricated buildings, etc.), which may have a strong structural pull on relevant industrial chains.
Short term tips: pay attention to the setting of affordable housing targets in the local "two sessions" in January and February 2022.
Risk tips: epidemic development exceeds expectations, policy strength exceeds expectations, and model calculation deviation
