One week market view
Last week, the A-share market rose first and then fell, the hot spots in the market changed frequently, and the expected effect of marginal improvement of China's policies appeared initially. However, the increase of internal and external uncertainty restricted the overall recovery of the market, and the global risk appetite was cooled by the impact of Omicron's new mutant virus, People.Cn Co.Ltd(603000) , China Youth Daily and other Chinese state-owned media issued a voice prompt about n ft The hype of the concept of meta universe has spread to listed companies and the secondary market. In the short term, we believe that the A-share market will continue to consolidate to absorb the disturbance of the increase of phased uncertainty. However, under the background of stable growth + risk prevention, the marginal improvement effect of medium-term policy is expected to be gradually strengthened. It is suggested to carry out balanced allocation around the three main lines of green transformation, scientific and technological innovation and consumption upgrading with more policy certainty.
The new uncertainty affecting the global market last week lies in the new mutation virus of Omicron. Crude oil and stock market are subject to adjustment due to panic. It is necessary to closely track the research information of the virus and the spread of the epidemic situation. According to who, Omicron, a new variant of covid-19 virus, has been listed as a noteworthy variant (VOC) broke out in South Africa recently. At present, cases have been reported in southern Africa, Hong Kong, Israel, Belgium, Germany and other places. Based on the preliminary data disclosed by the South African government, who and the British health and safety agency, multiple key variants of Omicron may lead to a significant increase in virus infectivity and the ability to escape vaccine immunity. Affected by this, global risk aversion is fermenting On January 26, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures fell by - 11.6% on the same day, and the MSCI global index, S & P 500, FTSE 100, Hang Seng Index and other stock indexes fell by an average of about 2-5 percentage points on the same day. According to the experience of delta virus, the impact of the panic about the new variant virus on the market may be short-term and one-off. The medium-term impact is more concerned about whether the virus will impact the vaccine effect and whether the possible epidemic escalation will lead to a global blockade, which will drag down global economic growth and supply chain repair. Therefore, the progress of Omicron epidemic still needs to be closely tracked in the follow-up, At present, more than 20 countries and regions around the world have issued entry restrictions on flights and passengers from southern African countries. For the A-share market, the degree of impact will depend on the sustainability of the impact on the peripheral markets and the possibility of a new round of epidemic spreading to China.
Although the increase of short-term uncertainty may disturb the market, under the background of medium-term stable growth + risk prevention, the marginal improvement effect of policy is expected to be gradually strengthened. We believe that market investment can be carried out around the main line of more boom certainty in the medium and long term. On 24 January, People's Daily published Liu He's signed article "we must achieve high-quality development (study and implement the spirit of the Sixth Plenary Session of the 19th CPC Central Committee)", which answered the connotation and path of high-quality development. We believe that achieving high-quality development will reshape the medium and long-term industrial pattern, and the industrial development will show "one ebb and flow" Among them, industries related to science and technology, green and consumption that meet the needs of people's better life will benefit from development; Accordingly, in the medium and long-term capital market investment, we also suggest focusing on the direction of high boom industries and focusing on the three main lines of scientific and technological innovation, green transformation and consumption upgrading. The significant expansion of the market scale of high boom industries will also bring about the production raw materials, equipment, core components, digital services, commercial operation The diffusion of investment opportunities for enterprises in various links such as terminal consumption. Of course, in the short term, some related industries have the problem of excessive valuation due to the accumulation of large increases, and it is inevitable that the market volatility will increase.
