Main points
Market view: the impact of the epidemic is limited, and actively participate in the cross year market
In December, the economic downturn may stabilize the weak, the decline of profits of listed companies is expected to achieve a "soft landing", the overall risk appetite continues to remain stable, at the same time, cross cycle regulation is fully opened, the word "stable" of monetary policy is in the forefront, and the probability of significant tightening of liquidity is low. The market will suffer a certain impact if the mutant virus strikes again, but referring to the past, this impact is often short-lived. Therefore, December is a better layout time point. The industry configuration level continues to shift to the growth style while maintaining a balanced configuration.
From the perspective of growth, in December, we focused on the weak stabilization of the economy under policy cross cycle regulation. With the clearance of high-risk areas and only 7 medium risk areas in China at the end of November, consumption is expected to rebound slightly in December; At the end of the year, exports are approaching a seasonal peak, which will continue to support economic growth; At the same time, the high-frequency data on the investment side show that the recent commercial housing turnover shows signs of stabilizing. In addition, the manufacturing investment is expected to continue to repair with exports, and the infrastructure probability remains stable. Therefore, on the whole, the economic downturn in December is expected to stabilize. In addition, since the 730 meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee stressed the need to implement cross cyclical economic regulation, and it is estimated that the beginning of next year will be the period with the greatest downward pressure on the economy, the economy is expected to pick up significantly in January 2022 after the expected loose monetary policy and the advance of fiscal policy.
At the liquidity level, the monetary policy in December is expected to continue to be stable, focus on "I", and pay attention to the use of structural tools. In terms of capital interest rate, it is still stable. There is downward pressure on the long end, but there is little downward space; The short-term interest rate is expected to be stable, and the central bank will continue the reverse repurchase operation to smooth out short-term fluctuations. We judge that the probability of subsequent "stable currency + wide credit" combination is high. In terms of funds, we need to pay attention to the maturity of 950 billion yuan of MLF in December and the progress of fiscal expenditure. At that time, we need to observe the operation of the central bank on the maturity of MLF: if we continue with the same amount, the probability of reducing the standard within the year will be greatly reduced; On the contrary, the probability of releasing the signal of RRR reduction policy in mid December is high.
In terms of risk appetite, there is no need to worry too much about the impact of the epidemic on risk appetite, and pay attention to the tone set by the central economic work conference. ① The impact of Omicron strain on the market is expected to be short and rapid, and will not form a continuous risk preference restriction. We expect that under the fear of epidemic situation, especially under the feedback of large decline of overseas indexes, A-Shares may further give feedback on this, but this feedback is likely to be short and fast. If the feedback is completed within 1-2 trading days, it will not continue to form a risk impact and inhibition on the global stock market and a shares. ② Pay attention to the setting of follow-up economic, monetary and fiscal policies and specific work arrangements at the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and the central economic work conference in mid December. ③ "Double carbon" green development support policies have been introduced, and the risk appetite of relevant chains has been boosted.
Industry configuration: actively participate in the cross year market and continue to perform growth
Growth in December will still be an important main line, and actively participate in the cross year market of growth. At the end of the year, the enthusiasm of the market to actively participate in the cross year market has increased. Although it seems to rotate too fast under the background of the recent active small ticket market, it can still be seen that the growth represented by new energy and semiconductors is still the main line of the whole market. Therefore, the overall configuration in December will be more positive. First, with the relaxation of the real estate policy on open loans and resident loans at the financing end in late November, the end of the policy has been realized, and the downward space of the market is limited; Second, the liquidity will continue to be stable at the end of the year, which will support the valuation of the growth sector; Third, the horizontal comparative growth of the boom still has comparative advantages. With the differentiation of q2-q3 growth and cycle boom, and the overall decline driven by the weakness of cycle supply and demand, the high boom will further focus on growth. At the same time, according to the conclusion of the resumption, the historical performance of the growth market generally follows the three-stage catalysis of valuation → performance → valuation, and this round of growth market will also enter the third stage of valuation.
Therefore, in the accelerated layout period at the end of the year, the configuration is dominated by growing new energy and semiconductors, the consumption focuses on automobiles and agriculture, and the finance focuses on the opportunities of securities companies moving forward in the restless spring. In terms of theme, focus on the theme investment opportunities of military industry + digital currency. Grow and actively allocate new energy vehicle industry chain, photovoltaic, wind power, hydrogen energy and energy storage; Consumers look for structural opportunities and pay attention to cars that improve along the boom and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery that benefit from the rebound in prices; With the opening of the restless financial market in spring, we can start the opportunity of phased securities companies.
Risk statement
The development of Omicron mutant strain exceeded expectations; China's economic downturn exceeded expectations; China's policy tightening exceeded expectations; Sino US relations deteriorated more than expected.
