Investment summary:
In the fourth week of November, the indexes with the largest increase in A-Shares were Chuang growth, gem 50, CSI 1000 and so on. Since the beginning of the year, the top indexes are Chuang growth, Guozheng 2000, gem 50, gem composite and so on.
Since the beginning of the year, the top performing sectors are electrical equipment, non-ferrous metals, chemical industry and mining, and the worst performing sectors are real estate, leisure services, non bank finance and household appliances.
This week, the northward capital generally showed a net outflow, and the net purchase of foreign capital was 5.71 billion yuan. The top five stocks that foreign investors bought in this week were Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) (4.215 billion), Kweichow Moutai Co.Ltd(600519) (3.159 billion), Wuliangye Yibin Co.Ltd(000858) (1.558 billion), Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) (1.072 billion) and Goertek Inc(002241) (866 million).
This week's core research focuses on 1: B.1 1.529 risk accumulation of variant virus spread
B.1. There were 50 mutations in Omicron of 1.529 mutant virus and more than 30 mutations in spike protein; Spike protein is the key for virus to invade human cells, and it is also the target of most vaccines. In the receptor binding domain, that is, the first contact between the virus and human cells, 10 mutations were found to have stronger transmission ability. In contrast, there are only two mutations in delta mutants sweeping the world. According to Tulio de Oliveira study, B.1 1.529 seems to spread very rapidly and may dominate all infection cases in South Africa in less than 2 weeks.
Meso core observation 1: the real estate industry has been supported by policies
Due to the obvious cooling of the second batch of centralized land supply, the streaming shooting rate in Changsha, Beijing, Shenyang, Hangzhou and Guangzhou is as high as more than 50%. In order to reduce the auction rate and increase the trading volume, some hot cities such as Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Tianjin and Nanjing have made significant changes in land transfer rules, such as raising the upper limit of house price sales and releasing certain profits to real estate developers; Moderately relax the payment period of margin; Lower the threshold of participating in the auction and mobilize the enthusiasm of real estate enterprises. From the beginning of 2021 to Q3, the national mortgage interest rate of the first house continued to rise to 5.74%, and did not begin to decline 1bp month on month until October, and the marginal tightening began to ease. In the key work meeting in the third quarter, the cbcirc said that it supported first home buyers in terms of loan down payment ratio and interest rate.
Meso core observation 2: the downstream of power semiconductor industry ushers in the opportunities of traditional industries and new energy, and new energy vehicles drive the demand of IGBT, SiC and sjmosfet. The average cost of power devices in each traditional vehicle is US $118, while the cost of power devices in pure electric vehicles is US $387, and the cost of semiconductor devices in the whole vehicle is about US $800. The cost of power devices of electric vehicles is 3.28 times that of traditional vehicles. Power semiconductors are also widely used in the field of photovoltaic and wind energy. It is estimated that from 2021 to 2030, the cumulative new installed capacity of PV in China will reach more than 700gw, and it is optimistic that the new installed capacity will reach 120gw in 2025. By 2023, the global shipment of 5g mobile phones will exceed 1 billion. The 5g base station has greatly increased the demand for MOSFET and power management IC. In the traditional application field, the sales scale of power transmission and distribution equipment enterprises above Designated Size in China will maintain a steady growth trend, and will exceed 4.27 trillion yuan by 2026. During the epidemic period, China's online consumption of household appliances exceeded offline consumption, and the annual penetration of online retail sales exceeded 50% for the first time.
Investment strategy: recent B.1.1 in South Africa 1.529 the risk of new variant virus spreading is accumulating, and the global unsealing date will be greatly delayed. It is expected that there will be some pressure on market risk appetite in the short term. At present, the flat mortgage interest rate and the relaxation of policies such as land auction reflect the goal of helping the real estate market bottom as a whole at the policy level. For a shares, the global stable cross year liquidity expectation has been further confirmed. It is recommended to continue the layout of high boom tracks such as new energy and high-end equipment manufacturing, which will continue to maintain high growth month on month in 2022, and the relevant lithium battery, semiconductor and other industrial chains will continue to maintain high growth expectations.
Risk enhancement: Overseas liquidity risk and China's monetary policy tightening risk
