Core view
Economy: a bright future, engine switching. China's economy is low before next year and high after next year. In the first half of the year, the economy is still constrained by the downward cycle of real estate. In the second half of the year, with the phased stabilization of real estate, manufacturing, consumption and services will promote the economic recovery, and the export growth rate will decline, but it is still resilient. The main melody of price is ppi-cpi convergence. Overseas, under the background of the normalized epidemic, the recovery of developed countries and emerging market countries is divided, and the high inflation in the United States will continue.
Liquidity: tight outside and loose inside, focusing on structure. The decline of the Fed's unconventional policy will restrict global liquidity. It is expected that the Fed will raise interest rates 1-2 times in the second half of next year. In China, there is a loose opportunity at the turn of the first and second quarters of next year. The RRR reduction is in line with expectations, and the interest rate reduction may be expected. The trend of ten bond interest rate is probably the first to go down and then up. A new round of wide credit cycle is coming, and green loans will become the main focus of this round of credit expansion.
Policy: combining hardness with softness, improving quality and efficiency. In terms of aggregate policy, in the first half of the year, the price pressure eased and the Fed's interest rate hike was partial to doves. Monetary policy ushered in a loose time window, gradually returned to neutrality in the second half of the year, and the rhythm of fiscal policy may return to the front. Under the constraints of domestic and foreign environment on aggregate policy space, structural policy tools continue to work. In terms of medium and long-term policies, focus on expanding domestic demand and top-level design of scientific and technological innovation, as well as the gradual implementation of carbon neutral "n" series policies.
Market strategy: break and then stand, and know the new life. Under the macro pressure in 2022, the growth rate of A-share performance fell, the market driving force shifted from performance to valuation, the volatility will increase, the structure will be found in the first half of the year, and the financial belt index will be found in the second half of the year. China's economic growth model has shifted from high-speed growth to high-quality development, industrial drive has shifted from real estate infrastructure to Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) , residents' asset allocation has shifted from real estate to capital market, and the system construction of four beams and eight columns has been completed. Although there will be pain in this process, it is on the right road, old and new.
Industry configuration: ups and downs, rising sun. Based on the dual cycle configuration framework, we combed two clues of macro cycle and scientific and technological innovation cycle. Under the macro driving clue, we focused on price changes in the first half of the year, the boom of middle and lower reaches industries rebounded, and auto parts, special equipment, food and beverage, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery and other tracks are expected to benefit; In the second half of the year, pay attention to the changes of interest rates and bargain hunting layout investment opportunities in financial sectors such as securities companies, banks and insurance. Under the clue of scientific and technological innovation cycle, pay attention to the track with clear trend, such as green development (wind power, photovoltaic, hydrogen industry, new energy vehicles, lithium batteries, energy storage and environmental protection), high-end manufacturing field (semiconductor, military industry) and digital economy (artificial intelligence and Internet of things).
Risk tips: the global and China epidemic situation worsened beyond expectations, macroeconomic policies such as real estate were significantly tightened, economic stall fell, inflation rose beyond expectations, Sino US friction intensified, and the promotion speed of industrial policies was lower than expected.
