Steel: steel prices plummeted after October. After the emotional overshoot, there was a short repair in the first half of last week. At present, it is still uncertain whether the restorative rebound of steel prices has ended. On Friday, the new variant strain of covid-19 attacked, the global risk assets callback, and the steel price fell with it. This round of overseas new epidemic forms an emotional stress test on the steel market. We can observe the steel price response under the systematic pessimism to judge the sustainability of the oversold rebound since last week. Of course, in the medium and long term, the downward trend of steel fundamentals may be far from complete, mainly due to the downward trend of the real estate cycle and the uncertainty of future supply side policies. After the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, steel prices started a large-scale rise for more than a year, and the global economy also started a strong recovery. If this new strain causes a new global epidemic again, it may be difficult for the global economy to reproduce the performance of the previous round, because the cycle position of the outbreak time point is different. Q1 in 2020 is near the bottom of the short cycle of the global economy. The bottom of the cycle plus strong global stimulus is the reason for the strong economic recovery in the past year. At present, it is the top area of the short cycle. If there is no new epidemic, the world will naturally enter the credit contraction stage. If there is a new epidemic, we must pay attention to the liquidity risk of offshore US dollars, Because the current global leverage level has been more difficult to bear a large level of credit contraction. It is suggested to look for opportunities in the growing new material industry and pay attention to Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) , Zhangjiagang Guangda Special Material Co.Ltd(688186) , Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) , Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , etc.
Coal: Investment Strategy: Recently, we believe that the risks in demand, price and policy are fully released, and we are optimistic about the rebound of the sector: 1. The daily consumption in the early stage has not risen yet, It is expected that it is mainly related to the poor performance of coal consumption industry demand related to real estate (steel, cement, etc., accounting for about 30% of coal demand). With the loosening of the margin of real estate policy, the risk on the demand side is fully released. 2. Although China’s daily coal output exceeds 12 million tons / day (reduce maintenance and increase production during the supply guarantee period), but at present, the level of available days of coal inventory is relatively reasonable. With the continuous improvement of heating demand in peak season, the production and marketing situation is better, and the price of thermal coal gradually tends to be stable. 3. On November 17, the national Standing Committee supported the establishment of a special refinancing of 200 billion yuan to support the clean and efficient utilization of coal, indicating that the policy recognizes the main energy status of coal And support will help promote the transformation and upgrading of the coal industry and boost the confidence of industrial chain investment. In the medium and long term, we believe that the constraints on the coal supply side are still strong. Under the background of slight annual growth in demand, coal is a scarce resource in the next few years, and the stock capacity or high profits. Now the mainstream stocks pay dividends according to 50-60%, the dividend rate of coal stocks is expected to reach the double-digit level, and the coal assets need to be repriced, Continue to be optimistic about the investment value of the sector. Give priority to the target of high market coal proportion and flexible capacity growth, and focus on power coal stocks: Beijing Haohua Energy Resource Co.Ltd(601101) , Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited(600188) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) . Metallurgical coal stocks are suggested to pay attention to: Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) , Jizhong Energy Resources Co.Ltd(000937) , Shanxi Coking Co.Ltd(600740) . Anthracite recommended attention: Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) . Coke stocks are recommended to pay attention to: Kailuan Energy Chemical Co.Ltd(600997) , Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) , China Xuyang group, Shaanxi Heimao Coking Co.Ltd(601015) .
In terms of thermal coal, the coal price is stable and the demand continues to release. This week, China’s coal prices stopped falling after large groups continued to stabilize. This week, the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal produced in QinGang Shanxi was 1090 yuan / ton, unchanged on a week-on-week basis. In terms of supply, the coal mines in the producing areas are producing actively, the coal mines are operating well, the overall supply is stable, the high-quality resources with high calorie and low sulfur are scarce, the quotation is high, the pit mouth prices in some areas rebound slightly, the number of coal pulling vehicles increases, and the market sentiment is good. In terms of import, the activity has increased. The downstream inquiry is mainly based on spot pallets, and the transaction rate has increased. In terms of demand, in the peak season of coal consumption, the downstream demand is continuously released, the daily consumption of the power plant continues to rise, and the enthusiasm of procurement and transportation is improved. On the whole, the coal price is stable this week, the market sentiment turns better, there may be rebound expectations in the short term, and follow-up attention will be paid to inventory consumption.
In terms of coking coal, the price of coking coal continued to fall and the demand situation improved. Coking coal prices continued to fall this week, Price increase of Shanxi produced main coke coal depot in Jingtang Port (tax included) was 2350 yuan / ton, a month on month decrease of 400 yuan / ton, and the prices of main coking coal and fat coal in Shanxi, Inner Mongolia and other places fell. In terms of supply, except for some coal mines whose output fell due to poor shipment, most coal mines maintained normal production, the supply was relatively loose, the delivery situation improved after the price fell, and the coal mine inventory decreased. In terms of import, Ganqi Maodu port customs clearance was conducted on the 4th and the 2nd of this week All customs clearance 509 (month on month + 51 vehicles), the epidemic situation tends to ease, the shipment situation improves, the enthusiasm for transportation increases significantly, and the short-term freight rate rises to 320-350 yuan / ton. In terms of demand, the commencement and production of coke enterprises remain at a low level, the inventory of coke enterprises decreases, the profits have been repaired after the decline of raw material prices and the improvement of shipment, and some coke enterprises begin to purchase. Overall, after the continuous decline of coke coal prices, Downstream demand shows signs of recovery, and the market is still weak. In the follow-up, we still need to pay attention to the inventory and replenishment of coke enterprises. In terms of coke, the eighth round of lifting and lowering landed, and the market sentiment was good. As of November 26, the price of secondary metallurgical coke in Tangshan was 2760 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton on a weekly basis. The eighth round of lifting and lowering this week fell to the ground, with a cumulative decline of 1600 yuan / ton. In terms of supply, the inventory is gradually consumed, the demand for replenishment by some coke enterprises increases, the start-up and production of coke enterprises still decline, and the supply side is still weak. In terms of demand, the finished product price of steel mills rebounded, the profit was repaired, and the demand for coke increased. However, the steel mills continued to curb rigid demand as a whole, superimposed with the further expectation of limited production in the Winter Olympic Games, the demand decreased, and the steel mills still had the willingness to reduce prices, but the resistance of coke enterprises was obvious. Overall, the coke market basically shows signs of improvement, but the downstream demand is still under pressure. Follow up attention will be paid to the downstream market such as steel mill inventory and real estate.
Nonferrous Metals: in October, the import of cobalt intermediate products decreased by 30% month on month; A new variant strain of Omicron was found in South Africa, and the cobalt price may accelerate the upward trend; The Ministry of industry and information technology issued the motor energy efficiency improvement plan (2021-2023) , further open the demand space. The demand boom continued to rise, and the price transmission was smooth. The State Council issued the 2030 carbon peak action plan. In that year, the proportion of new energy and clean energy powered vehicles reached about 40%, and the global trend of electrification was further clarified; In October, the production and sales of electric vehicles in China hit another record high, reaching 397000 and 383000 respectively, with a month on month increase of 12.5% and 7.2% respectively, and a year-on-year increase of 1.3 times; In view of the sharp rise in raw material prices, battery manufacturers raised battery prices, and the price transmission of the industrial chain was smooth. The price of lithium carbonate hit a record high. This week, battery grade lithium carbonate increased by 1.0% compared with last week, the quotation of battery grade lithium hydroxide was flat compared with last week, and the quotation of spodumene increased by 7.3% to USD 1900 / ton; With the tightening of raw materials, cobalt prices may rise further. This week, The quotation of MB cobalt (standard grade) and MB cobalt (alloy grade) increased by 2.7% and 3.6% month on month respectively, and the tax price of metal cobalt in China has been close to 480000 yuan / ton; the price of metal cobalt, cobalt sulfate and cobalt trioxide in China increased by 4.2%, – 0.5% and 1.0% respectively; rare earth and permanent magnet entered the “simultaneous rise of volume and price” In the spot market, the quotation of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in China increased by 8.3% to 848000 yuan / ton, and the quotation of neodymium iron boron N35 blank increased by 3.2%. The spot circulation in the market is limited, and large manufacturers are willing to support the price. The shortage of antimony raw materials remains unchanged. The price of antimony concentrate in China was 56500 yuan / ton, unchanged from last week; The price of antimony ingot was 72000 yuan / ton, down 0.7% from last week. At present, the Hunan Gold Corporation Limited(002155) subsidiary of Anhua Zixi mine has resumed production. The resumption of production in Lengshuijiang area is relatively slow, the raw materials are still tight, and the price continues to rise. Base metals, the expectation of rapid contraction of U.S. liquidity and variant strains triggered concerns about market demand. Biden announced the nomination of Powell for re-election as chairman of the Federal Reserve this week. Democratic candidate Brainard lost the election, and the expectation of raising interest rates increased. At the same time, the U.S. policy minutes in October showed an eagle. Some policymakers said that if the economic data continued to improve, they would agree to accelerate the tightening of monetary policy, This has exacerbated the market pessimism. At the same time, due to the newly discovered covid-19 virus variant in South Africa, the market has opened a safe haven mode. LME copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin and nickel rose or fell by – 2.1%, – 3.4%, 2.5%, – 1.4%, 0.6% and – 0.2% respectively this week.
Building materials: this week’s view: it is suggested to pay attention to the carbon fiber / glass fiber / quartz glass industry with good growth / high prosperity, and pay attention to the impact of mutant virus on the pace of overseas economic recovery; The prosperity of glass fiber / quartz sand / carbon fiber continues and continues to be recommended; The marginal easing of real estate is expected to continue, and the price rise will gradually fall / the price of raw materials will drop, and the brand building materials will gradually enter the layout time point, with high leading certainty; The cost of the water reducing agent sector has dropped rapidly, and the leader with new category expansion logic is preferred; The cement sector has high valuation cost performance, and the leader with volume increase logic is preferred; The toughness of the glass plate still exists, focusing on the expansion of new categories such as photovoltaic, electronics and pharmaceutical glass. 1) For the carbon fiber industry, according to the data of “gathering and transformation development” of carbon fiber industry, the global / Chinese demand in 20 years is 107000 tons and 49000 tons respectively. Benefiting from the large volume of emerging civil products such as wind power / carbon composites / hydrogen storage bottles, we expect the compound growth rate of global / Chinese carbon fiber demand to reach 14% / 25% respectively in 21-25 years; On the supply side, under the background of technology maturity / cost reduction / capacity expansion of Chinese enterprises, we expect that the localization rate is expected to increase from 38% in 20 years to 55% in 25 years; Carbon fiber has high technical / financial barriers and high industry concentration. According to the data of “gathering and transformation development” of carbon fiber industry, the global / Chinese Cr5 in 20 years was 62% / 81% respectively, and it was basically monopolized by American and Japanese enterprises. With the rapid rise of Chinese enterprises, the industry pattern is still variable; The manufacturing cost (mainly depreciation / energy consumption) in the production process of carbon fiber accounts for about 50% – 75%, which can reduce the production cost through scale effect. In addition, it can also reduce the cost by optimizing the process / improving technology. It is recommended that Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) Wait. 2) For the glass fiber industry, the current price remains stable, the overall inventory of the industry is still low, and the supply and demand pattern remains positive. From the supply side, we expect that the new capacity of the industry from 21q4 to 22 will be very limited, with about 260000 / 150000 tons of roving / electronic yarn respectively; From the demand side, exports continue to recover. At the same time, driven by China’s emerging industries, we expect the glass fiber boom in 22 years to continue. We mainly recommend China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) , Shandong Fiberglass Group Co.Ltd(605006) . 3) For the quartz glass industry, benefiting from the growth of photovoltaic installed capacity / the transformation of photovoltaic cells from p-type to n-type, the demand for high-purity quartz sand is growing rapidly, the supply side is newly added or limited, and the price of quartz sand is expected to rise steadily; The demand for semiconductors and military quartz materials is booming, and the barriers to qualification certification are high. Leading enterprises are expected to continue to increase the market share, and Jiangsu Pacific Quartz Co.Ltd(603688) and Hubei Feilihua Quartz Glass Co.Ltd(300395) are mainly recommended. 4) For consumer building materials, on the one hand, under the cooling of the second batch of centralized land supply transactions, we believe that the marginal easing at the real estate end is expected to continue, and the pessimistic expectation of consumer building materials is expected to be repaired; On the other hand, with the gradual implementation of price increases and the decline of raw material prices, we judge that the profitability of consumer building materials is expected to gradually improve, and the industry will gradually enter the layout time point. Consumer building materials leaders have advantages in brand / Channel / cost / capital. They have the ability to cross the cycle in terms of competitiveness and growth, focusing on leading enterprises Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) , Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , Guangdong Dongpeng Holdings Co.Ltd(003012) , Asia Cuanon Technology (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(603378) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Yonggao Co.Ltd(002641) , Wangli Security & Surveillance Product Co.Ltd(605268) . 5) It is suggested to pay attention to Zhejiang Walrus New Material Co.Ltd(003011) : the company is the leader in the production and export of PVC flooring, and the growth elasticity of production capacity will be highlighted in the future. Although in the early stage, due to the rise of raw material prices, exchange rate and shipping pressure, the profit is under pressure, but at present, the export chain benefits from a high outlook and the sea freight decreases, the enterprise gradually adjusts the price, the cost side also drops, and the profit is expected to be gradually repaired. 6) For the water reducing agent industry, the price of raw material ethylene oxide has dropped by about 25% from a higher point, and there is still a possibility of decline; By the end of September, the centralized price increase of major manufacturers is expected to be gradually implemented, and the industry profit is expected to improve. Leading companies have obvious competitive advantages, and new products benefit from the improvement of downstream demand, which is expected to maintain high growth. It is mainly recommended Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) . 7) For the glass industry, we believe that the price is at the bottom stage. Under the “guaranteed delivery” of real estate, the toughness of glass demand is expected to be maintained, and the shipment volume of the industry rebounded month on month. On the supply side, some production lines with expired furnaces began cold repair and shutdown, the supply side contracted, and the glass inventory margin decreased. At present, the price and cost of glass are close. Under the high cost of raw materials / energy, manufacturers are willing to support the price, and the glass price is expected to be maintained. Focus on the medium and long-term growth brought by various types of glass (photovoltaic, electronic, pharmaceutical glass, etc.); focus on Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , and suggest paying attention to Csg Holding Co.Ltd(000012) , Xinyi Glass, Luoyang Glass Company Limited(600876) Wait. 8) For the cement industry, with the acceleration of special bond issuance, infrastructure is expected to boost demand; In addition, the role of policy regulation of coal prices has gradually emerged, and the cost pressure of enterprises is expected to ease month on month. We continue to be optimistic about the valuation and repair opportunities of the cement sector, focusing on Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Guangdong Tapai Group Co.Ltd(002233) , Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) , and Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) , Jiangxi Wannianqing Cement Co.Ltd(000789) and China building materials.
Chemical industry: the price of crude oil is rising. It is suggested to pay attention to China Oilfield Services Limited(601808) , Offshore Oil Engineering Co.Ltd(600583) . The traditional bulk is still looking for the bottom, and the leading value crosses the cycle. Affected by the economic cycle and the global spread of the epidemic, traditional bulk products in the chemical industry are in a downward trend. As the main body of the chemical industry, the PPI of chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry in April 2021 increased by 17.50% year-on-year, which was positive for four consecutive months. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading enterprises with excellent quality and core competitiveness: in the downward period of the cycle, the leading enterprises expand their advantages, and the valuation is obviously low, or cross the cycle, such as Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) .
New materials: actively embrace industrial innovation and supply chain reconstruction. Scientific and technological progress promotes the innovation of terminal demand and drives the upgrading and development of high-end manufacturing industry. In this process, industrial innovation will put forward higher requirements for material properties and promote the rapid development of new material industry. It is suggested to focus on the subject of industrial innovation and supply chain reconstruction: Jiangsu Yoke Technology Co.Ltd(002409) , Shandong Sinocera Functional Material Co.Ltd(300285) , Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) . In addition, it is recommended to focus on high-quality growth companies: Zhejiang Hailide New Material Co.Ltd(002206) .
Risk warning event: the sharp decline of macro economy leads to pressure on demand; The pressure at the supply end continues to increase. The economic growth rate is lower than expected; Excessive policy regulation; Renewable energy substitution, etc; Coal import impact risk. Macroeconomic fluctuation, import, environmental protection and other policy fluctuation risks, gold price fluctuation risks, new energy vehicle sales are lower than expected risks, and the premise assumptions of industry supply and demand calculation are lower than expected risks. Macroeconomic downside risks; The epidemic has led to lower than expected demand; Risk of relaxation of production restriction and new production capacity; Risk of poor capital turnover of 2B end enterprises. Macroeconomic downside risk, crude oil price fluctuation risk and enterprise operation risk.
