Meso core observation: the real estate industry has been supported by policies
1. Due to the obvious cooling of the second batch of centralized land supply, the streaming shooting rate in Changsha, Beijing, Shenyang, Hangzhou and Guangzhou is as high as more than 50%. In order to reduce the auction rate and increase the trading volume, some hot cities such as Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Tianjin and Nanjing have made significant changes in land transfer rules, such as raising the upper limit of house price sales and releasing certain profits to real estate developers; Moderately relax the payment period of margin; Lower the threshold of participating in the auction and mobilize the enthusiasm of real estate enterprises.
2. From the beginning of 2021 to Q3, the national mortgage interest rate of the first house continued to rise to 5.74%, and did not begin to decline 1bp month on month until October, and the marginal tightening began to ease. Cities with a large increase in interest rates in the early stage also decreased. The first home loan interest rate in Guangzhou, Foshan, Chengdu and Huizhou increased by 80-120bp in total during the year. At present, some banks have reduced, including Guangfo and others by 10-20bp, Huizhou ICBC, CCB and ABC by 20-30bp, and Chengdu CCB and ABC by 50-60bp.
3. In the key work meeting in the third quarter, the cbcirc said that it supported first home buyers in terms of loan down payment ratio and interest rate. In the past month, the implementation of residential credit has been revised, which is specifically reflected in increasing the amount, speeding up lending, reducing qualification requirements, reducing the down payment ratio, relaxing second-hand housing loans, etc. The lending cycle of major banks in Guangzhou and Shanghai has decreased from 4-6 months to the fastest 1-2 months, and CCB has a list that can lend in one month. Customer qualification requirements are reduced. For example, some banks in Guangzhou relax the review of the source of down payment and find out the parent level; The proportion of down payment has been reduced. For example, in Foshan, the proportion of down payment in foreign customers' purchase restriction areas has been reduced from 40% to 30%
Thoughts on land prices, house prices and real estate stocks in the real estate market
1. Since 2008, the land premium rate and house price changes have been fully linked. Since first-hand houses are often regulated by policy price limit, more attention is paid to the price changes of second-hand houses that most reflect the real trading mood.
2. The most significant three rounds of real estate bull markets in the last decade are 2009-10 bull market, 2013 calf market and 2015-17 bull market, which are caused by the monetary policy of 4 trillion economic stimulus and interest rate reduction, the recovery of land premium and the monetary cycle of 14-15 reserve requirement and interest rate reduction, which are deeply affected by national policies.
3. The main financial indicators of real estate related industries observed several bull market highs include gross profit margin, roe, profit and revenue growth rate. The high point of steel industry precedes the high point of real estate industry, and the high point of real estate industry matches the high point of land premium rate. The high point of building materials precedes the high point of home appliances and building decoration.
4. Since 2021, the land premium rate of the first and second tier cities has been strictly suppressed. In particular, the centralized land supply from Q2 in 2021 has continued to reduce the land premium rate of the first tier cities from 8% to less than 3%, the land premium rate of the second tier cities from 17% to 13.5%, and the land premium rate of the third tier cities has declined the fastest, from 26% to 7% at the beginning of the year. It is difficult for the real estate industry to reverse temporarily.
Weekly meso data
Upstream, Brent light crude oil and NYMEX light crude oil prices continued to fall, while NYMEX natural gas prices fell. The number of crude oil wells increased. In terms of coal price, coke, coking coal and power coal all rose. In Europe, Richard and Newcastle, the price of power coal rose sharply, and the number of ships at anchorage decreased. LME nonferrous Futures Copper, aluminum, zinc, tin and nickel prices rose, while lead prices fell slightly. COMEX gold and silver prices fell while copper prices rose. Lithium prices continued to rise, Jiangxi tungsten concentrate prices fell slightly, and BDI rose. In the middle reaches, the futures and spot prices of rebar increased, the operating rate of blast furnace increased, the capacity utilization rate of steel plant decreased, and the average price of cement decreased slightly. The prices of polyester staple fiber, polyester DTY and PTA of chemical products decreased, the prices of viscose filament, methanol, natural rubber and PVC increased, and the MDI in Shandong decreased. Polysilicon prices outside China fell slightly. Downstream, the transaction area of commercial housing in the top ten cities decreased significantly. Pork prices continued to rise, the average price of white feather chicken rose, and the wholesale price index of vegetables in Shandong continued to decline.
Risk tip: policy risk
