This week's strategy:
Recent new virus damage to be determined vs medium-term steady growth overweight, bargain hunting layout structural opportunities
1、 Review of strategic views and market pulsation: policy expectations are gradually warmer, dominated by hard technology + pan consumer structural market
1. Review of strategic perspective: the index fluctuates slowly, dominated by structural opportunities of hard technology + pan consumption
According to the analysis of the monthly strategy report in November, the index returns to shock and rises slowly, focusing on the structural opportunities of Pan consumption + hard technology, it is pointed out that the marginal stability of economic fundamentals, the pressure on the expected difference of the company's overall performance is small, the stability of macro policies is loose, and the marginal improvement of external environment. At present, the main indexes and industry valuations are reasonable and safe; The market environment in the above aspects supports the continuous shock and slow rise of the market index. However, considering the slowdown of the economic trend and the time required for the implementation of the steady growth policy, the rising space and sustainability of the index are limited, and the index is still dominated by structural opportunities. In combination with the main variables such as the development of covid-19 epidemic and the change of prevention and control pressure, macro policy expectation and industry prosperity in 22 years, we focus on three main investment lines:
1) performance improvement category: the middle and lower reaches industries, including "mass cost" and "middle price", including high-end food and high-end Baijiu, and the manufacturing industry chain of lithium battery and Cecep Solar Energy Co.Ltd(000591) components.
2) Through the cycle category: mainly advanced manufacturing industries with sustained prosperity, including advanced manufacturing industries represented by semiconductor materials and production equipment, power semiconductor chip IGBT, military equipment, electric smart vehicles, carbon neutralization technology, etc;
3) Bottom (out of difficulty) reversal: industries whose industry boom fundamentals are about to bottom out and improve, mainly including animal husbandry (pig prices have basically bottomed out, and the deregulation of production capacity is about to start), modern seed industry, Airport (the impact of covid-19 epidemic is gradually weakened, and international flights are expected to be gradually opened in the medium term), smart small household appliances (the shortage of chip supply is gradually alleviated) and insurance (the pain of agent reform is weakening, the real estate industry is dragging down the bottom, and the assets and liabilities are gradually improving at both ends); and the valuation repair market of undervalued blue chips basically established at the bottom of the policy, mainly focusing on the leading financial and real estate industries and the real estate industry chain (home decoration building materials and kitchen electricity).
2. Market pulsation: policy expectations are gradually warming up, dominated by hard technology + pan consumption structural market
The recently released October credit and social finance data show that the decline of residents' housing loans has stopped and warmed up, the growth rate of social finance has stopped and stabilized, and the bond financing policy of real estate enterprises is expected to be relaxed; Recently, the central bank added 300 billion yuan of small refinancing and launched carbon emission reduction support tools. The national standing committee decided to set up 200 billion yuan of special refinancing to support clean and efficient utilization of coal, continuously releasing the signal of structural monetary and credit policy. The above social finance, housing loan data and structural wide credit instruments all indicate the release of the policy at the end of the year, alleviating the market's concern about the continuous slowdown of the early economy and the continuous tightening of the real estate policy, and boosting the market's shock and slow rise since the end of October.
The latest third quarter monetary policy implementation report released by the central bank puts forward that the external environment is becoming more complex and severe, and China's economic recovery and development is facing some phased, structural and cyclical factors, It is more difficult to maintain the stable operation of the economy (compared with the reporter's question after the Bureau of statistics released the economic data in October recently, it is proposed that "efforts still need to be made to maintain economic stability and recovery" Consistent judgment); We should improve the money supply regulation mechanism, maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity, enhance the stability of total credit growth, and further confirm the policy orientation of stable growth, wide money and structural wide credit. It is expected that before the 22-year macro policy tone is officially established at the central economic work conference in mid December, the above policies are expected to loosen, and the market shock is expected to rise slowly in the medium term.
