Looking back at 2021, the market underestimated four major economic trends: underestimated the export toughness, underestimated the upward range of PPI, underestimated the downward range of economy, and underestimated the range of policy easing and liquidity easing, mainly due to the repeated epidemic, strict control of real estate, double carbon and double control Four major factors, such as financial postposition, are disturbed (repeated epidemic situations are difficult to predict, and the other three have their own "reasons" ）。 Looking forward to 2022, the most important goal of China's macro environment is stability. 2022 is the year of change of office and the beginning of the second century of the party. Stability will become the main tone: steady growth is the most important, We expect that the GDP target growth rate in 2022 may be set at about 5.5% (the agreed target should be 5-5.5%; the bottom line should be more than 5%); we also need to take into account six major objectives: loose real estate vs economic transformation; short-term inflation control vs medium and long-term double carbon; China's loose currency vs global liquidity ebb; tighter China US relations vs complex Geopolitics; and China's "dynamic zeroing" Vs open the door; Steady growth vs risk prevention, strong supervision and promoting reform.
On the whole, China's macro operation and asset allocation in 2022 will show the following characteristics:
1、 Policy: take the lead in stabilizing growth, and make every effort to stabilize growth; Promote reform and structural adjustment, double carbon + common prosperity
1. Main tone: since November, the state has become more worried about the economy, the policy may be officially turned, and the combination of steady growth is expected to be introduced one after another, including monetary and fiscal loosening, real estate production restriction and correction, stimulating consumption, expanding infrastructure, stabilizing foreign trade, etc. At the same time, we will continue to promote reform and structural adjustment, focusing on double carbon and common prosperity. The report of the 20th National Congress is the top priority.
2. Monetary policy: generally stable and loose, loose first and then stable in rhythm. It is still possible to reduce reserve requirements and interest rates (LPR) before Q1 in 2022, which is specifically reflected in "wide money + stable credit + structural easing"; the growth rate of social finance is expected to stabilize and recover (10-11%) in 21q4-22q1 and slow down after 22q2. It is expected that the growth rate of social finance in 2022 will be about 10.5%.
3. Fiscal policy: more proactive, ahead of schedule, tax reduction can be expected. The deficit ratio is expected to be flat to about 3.2%, and the new special debt will be reduced to 3.4 trillion, corresponding to the broad fiscal deficit ratio this year to about 6% (about 6.5% in 21 years). Pay attention to the impact of real estate cooling: drag down land finance; affect localized bonds; possible default risk of weak qualified urban investment in high debt areas.
2、 Fundamentals: more than 5% of GDP, first low and then high, and Q2 is the lowest; Kinetic energy switching, rising consumption, stable investment and falling exports
1. Economic rhythm: the GDP growth rate is expected to be about 8% in 21 years, 5.5% in 22 years, and 5.3%, 5.1%, 5.8% and 5.6% in Q1-Q4 in the current quarter, corresponding to the cumulative growth rate of 5.3%, 5.2%, 5.4% and 5.5%, and the nominal growth rate of the whole year is about 8.5%.
2. Growth momentum: since the epidemic, exports and real estate have been the strong support for the economy. The economic momentum will switch in 2022: the supporting forces are mainly consumption recovery and infrastructure development, the downward forces are mainly export decline and real estate decline, and manufacturing investment remains to be seen.
3. Troika: consumption rises, investment stabilizes and exports decline. Focus on the substantive measures to promote consumption, loosen real estate and expand infrastructure > consumption: subject to the impact of the epidemic and the decline of income, consumption tends to improve in 2022, but the range is limited and it is difficult to return to the normal level. It is estimated that the social zero growth rate is about 5% - 7%, which is slightly better than the average growth rate of about 4% in 2021. In terms of structure, offline consumption and service consumption greatly affected by the epidemic have large space for repair, including hotels, catering, tourism, transportation, etc. > Investment: 1) real estate: the policy will be marginal loose, but the downward adjustment of the real estate boom has not ended, but the slope is gradually slowing down. In other words, the real estate industry will not stall and decline in 2022, but it is difficult to reverse the trend, and the probability will stabilize in stages. The growth rate of real estate investment is expected to drop to 0-4%; 2) Infrastructure construction: facing multiple constraints such as lifelong accountability and localized debt, the new term will not be "big", and the annual growth rate is expected to rise slightly to about 6%; 3) Manufacturing industry: the resilience is still strong. It tends to pick up in the first half of the year and gradually weakens in the second half of the year. The annual growth rate may be about 5% - 7%. If the infrastructure construction exceeds the expectation, the manufacturing investment will also exceed the expectation. > Export: it will continue to be underestimated in 2021. The probability will decline in 2022, but the resilience is still strong. It is still expected to grow by about 5% in the whole year.
3、 Liquidity: above CPI and below PPI, the interest rate first fell and then stabilized, fluctuated throughout the year, the US dollar rose and the RMB depreciated
1. Inflation: CPI generally tends to rise, about 2.4% in the whole year and briefly broke 3% in the second half of the year. Pigs, oil and weather are disturbed; PPI generally tends to decline, still high in the first half of the year, Q4 may turn negative, about 3.5% in the whole year, focusing on power and production restriction; There are three major concerns: the narrowing of ppi-cpi scissors difference; PPI to CPI conduction effect; Impact on monetary policy (not constraints). In addition, the US CPI is still high in the short term, and the decline in 2022 is a definite direction, but only a matter of amplitude (expected to drop to 2-3%).
2. Interest rate: Based on the five factor analysis framework of "economy, inflation, currency, supervision and allocation", the fluctuation of interest rate may increase in one or two months before and after the end of the year. There is more downward support in the first half of 2022, and the upward risk increases in the second half of 2022. The whole year should be dominated by shocks, and the center may be 2.7% - 3%. In addition, in 2022, the nominal interest rate of US bonds will probably decline slightly, but the real interest rate may rise.
3. Exchange rate: in 2022, the US dollar index will change from shock to rise, and the high point may break 100; The RMB tends to depreciate, but the range is limited.
4、 Meso aspect: there are three clues: common prosperity, double carbon, profit upstream, middle and downstream transmission
1. Consumption trend under common prosperity: medium and long-term common prosperity is good for consumption, focusing on structural opportunities in three reform directions:
1) Increase: luxury consumption may be suppressed; 2) Expansion: in addition to housing, education and medical treatment, the consumption of health, spirit, convenience and personality may be boosted; 3) Lower: survival consumption is gradually upgraded, and the structure is good for leading enterprises.
2. "Double carbon" industry opportunities: double carbon is expected to drive the total investment volume of more than one million billion, and the average annual investment accounts for more than 2% of GDP; With the change of energy structure, the industrial regional layout may shift to the central and western regions; Different industries have different difficulties in achieving the goals, and the strength of follow-up policies will also be different: new energy and circular economy can basically exceed the goals; Fossil energy, "two highs" and other goals are difficult to achieve, and the policy may continue to be under high pressure. Strict capacity replacement, energy conservation and carbon reduction are the follow-up priorities.
3. Upstream, middle and downstream transmission of profits: Based on the experience of narrowing the scissors difference of ppi-cpi in the past five rounds, after this round of ppi-cpi narrowing, the upstream profit margin will be transmitted to the middle and lower reaches, and the upstream squeeze on the middle and lower reaches will be gradually weakened. However, in view of factors such as double carbon, global supply chain friction, epidemic impact on consumption and so on, the short-term upstream profits are still resilient, and the actual improvement of the middle and lower reaches remains to be seen.
5、 Allocation: stock market structural opportunities, bond market volatility opportunities, focusing on three disturbances
1. Looking for opportunities in terms of policy, fundamentals, liquidity and meso perspective: the most important thing is that in 2022, it will be mainly stable, monetary and fiscal stability is relatively loose, liquidity is relatively abundant, and the market is still "not poor", which will form a favorable support for stocks and bonds.
2. The uncertainty is still high, focusing on the progress of the epidemic, the strength of policies (especially the correction of real estate and production restriction), and the rhythm of interest rate increase in the United States. Attached table: list of major events in 2022; forecast of major economic indicators in 2022
Risk tips: unexpected changes in epidemic evolution, policy trend and external environment
