Core view
The “Omicron” strain is coming. From the perspective of source, the emergence of Omicron is related to patients with low immunity. A series of unusual mutations were carried out by two Omicron mutants. Omicron may be a mutation occurring during a chronic infection in a immunocompromised case, or from an untreated AIDS patient.
From the perspective of communication, Omicron has been reported in 11 countries and regions around the world. Early studies have shown that the R value of Omicron is 2, that is, each patient can infect 2 people. As of 28, 11 of the countries and regions in South Africa, Botswana, China, Hongkong, Belgium, the United Kingdom and Australia reported the mutation.
In the face of the havoc of Omicron, it is urgent to build a defense barrier of “vaccine + drug”. From the perspective of vaccine, Omicron is expected to promote the global vaccination of enhanced needles, and relevant Chinese enterprises have successively carried out the evaluation and research of Omicron strain; From the perspective of drugs, small molecule drugs and neutralizing antibodies have successively released clinical data. Small molecule drugs are more expected than neutralizing antibodies because of their advantages of low cost, high stability and convenient use.
Vaccine: with the outbreak of Omicron, China will further speed up the vaccination of intensified needles. Booster needle is the best way to fight epidemic disease. Vaccination of booster needle for fully vaccinated people can provide “the strongest covid-19 virus protection”. For the Omicron mutant, Chinese vaccine enterprises have carried out evaluation and research work one after another. Kexing biology said that it would carry out evaluation and research as soon as possible to understand the impact of Omicron strain on the existing covid-19 virus inactivated vaccine and the necessity of developing variant vaccine. Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) Bio said it had begun vaccine research and development for new mutant strains.
Drugs: focus on small molecule drugs and neutralizing antibodies, and pay attention to the top enterprises in clinical progress. Globally, the world’s leading small molecule drugs include Merck’s molnupiravir and Pfizer’s paxlovid, of which Pfizer’s paxlovid can reduce the severe risk by 89%. Focusing on China, the top enterprises in clinical progress in China include Kaifa Pharmaceutical (prochloramide), real Biology (azvudine) and Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) (vv116).
Investment suggestion: the attack of Omicron strain has revived the global anti epidemic wave. On November 26, covid-19 vaccine and neutralizing antibody stocks rose across the board, and mRNA vaccine manufacturers rose by more than 10%. After Monday’s opening, A-share Hong Kong stock covid-19 epidemic related sectors led the increase, including covid-19 vaccine sector, covid-19 detection sector, covid-19 specific drugs sector, etc. as of the close, tengshengbo pharmaceutical rose 9.12%, Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) rose 5.29%, Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) rose 3.27%, Kaifa pharmaceutical rose 2.44%, Daan Gene Co.Ltd(002030) rose 4.49%.
We believe that in the face of the impact of Omicron, the covid-19 vaccine and specific drugs whose valuation returns to a reasonable range deserve special attention. It is suggested to pay attention to covid-19 vaccine leading enterprises, including Cansino Biologics Inc(688185) , Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) ; Leading enterprises with in-depth layout of small molecule drugs, including developing the pharmaceutical industry and Shanghai Junshi Biosciences Co.Ltd(688180) ; Leading neutralizing antibody R & D enterprises, including tengshengbo pharmaceutical, etc.
Risk statement
R & D is less than expected and market competition intensifies
