Core view: three potential effects of Omicron variant virus (b.1.1.529) on mobility are predicted
At present, there are 50 mutations in Omicron and more than 30 mutations in spike protein; Spike protein is the key for virus to invade human cells, and it is also the target of most vaccines. At present, 10 mutations have been found in the receptor binding domain, that is, the part where the virus first contacts human cells, and has stronger transmission ability. In contrast, there are only two mutations in delta mutants sweeping the world. Who recently said that the overall global risk assessment of the Omicron variant of covid-19 virus is “very high” and may spread widely in the world. According to the lancet, B.1 1. The infection rate of 529 Omicron virus is more than twice that of delta virus. At present, B.1.1 is among the new cases in South Africa The proportion of 1.529 is rising rapidly. Finally, it is expected that the diffusion slope of nu (b.1.1.529 Omicron) mutant virus will be 7 times that of delta virus, and it is possible to reach the peak within 3 weeks of a single outbreak.
1. Predicted impact of the new mutant virus I: the tightening expectations of the central banks of China and the United States have been greatly delayed
First of all, the new mutant virus will further upgrade the entry isolation of countries around the world, and the world economic recovery is expected to slow down again. The recent policy of relative dove tightening of the Central Bank of China and the United States will be further extended. The expectation of two H2 interest rate increases in 2022 conveyed by the United States at the interest rate meeting in September may be subject to certain variables.
Different from the situation of inflation, the central banks of major countries in the world are also divided. The Central Bank of China maintained a dove biased monetary policy under low inflation expectations. The United States began to reduce the rate of asset purchase under the condition of 20-year high inflation, but the overall pace was slow. The European Central Bank as a whole continues to maintain a neutral bias. In contrast, Russia, which has serious inflation, has started raising interest rates six times, and the central banks of South Korea and New Zealand have started raising interest rates twice. It is expected that after the mutated virus drags down the global economy, the central bank’s tightening rhythm differentiation will continue.
2. Predicted impact 2 of the new variant virus: advanced manufacturing tracks such as new energy, semiconductor and photovoltaic wind power have received loose liquidity and continued support
Overall, in the process of the new mutant virus affecting the global economic recovery, China’s liquidity continues to remain relatively loose and the time is further extended, which will continue to be conducive to the growth track of high growth expected new energy and advanced manufacturing core technology, and continue to be supported by low interest rate market funds. From the perspective of month on month changes, the industries that continue to maintain high growth in 2022 are still high boom tracks such as new energy index and high-end equipment manufacturing index.
3. Predicted impact 3 of the new variant virus: the time of high-level consolidation and core shortage tide in the global supply chain will be prolonged
If a new variant virus spreads globally, the sluggish supply chain will be exacerbated again, and the shipping price will rise again. Finally, the industries that rely heavily on the supply chain, such as the semiconductor industry chain, will continue to be in shortage. As any link in the supply chain, stagnation will lead to an imbalance between supply and demand. For example, during the outbreak of Q2 mutant virus in Southeast Asia this year, the shutdown brought about a lack of core tide. The reason is that Southeast Asia accounts for 27% of the global semiconductor packaging and testing market, of which Malaysia accounts for 13% of the global market share. The global automotive industry will lose 3.9 million vehicles due to semiconductor shortage in 2021, which is expected to cause a loss of US $110 billion.
Main liquidity observations:
(11.20-11.26) a total of 400 billion yuan of reverse repurchase operations were carried out. As 210 billion yuan of reverse repurchase expired, a net investment of 190 billion yuan was realized last week (11.15-11.19) a total of 210 billion yuan of reverse repo was carried out. As 500 billion yuan of reverse repo expired, a net return of 290 billion yuan was realized. The 7-day reverse repo interest rate remained at 2.20% since the end of March 2020, and the 14 day reverse repo maintained 2.35% since June 2020. The amount of IPO in the equity market increased in November compared with October, the amount of fund-raising in the primary market increased, and the trading activity in the secondary market increased Liters. In terms of overseas funds, at the end of the fourth quarter, the activity of foreign capital transactions decreased, the inflow amount of funds from the North hot concept plate decreased, and the enthusiasm of foreign investment in the A-share market decreased. In terms of institutional funds, the fund issuance heat has not decreased, and the position is relatively stable. From the perspective of institutional fund allocation style preference, the medium market value portfolio weight continues to be concerned by public funds, and the heat of small market value portfolio weight exceeds the proportion of large market value.
Risk tip: economic downside risk, monetary policy tightening risk
