Core view:
Research framework and analysis scope: according to the upstream and downstream logic of the industrial chain and the enterprise "research, production and marketing" framework, build an integrated investment path map of the consumer goods retail industry, covering upstream brands and downstream channels.
Policy direction and industry trend: promoting the upgrading of residents' consumption and cultivating new consumption have become the theme of the policy during the 14th Five Year Plan period. The policy during the year aims to guide the healthy and high-quality development of China's consumption in the future; For the domestic demand market, deepen the supply side reform to meet the current consumer demand, continue to expand the supply of high-quality consumer goods and medium and high-end products, and improve the influence and competitiveness of independent brands. In the post epidemic era, consumption growth has gradually recovered, and the prosperity of optional upgrading categories (tobacco, alcohol, cosmetics and jewelry) is higher.
Research and judgment on market direction: at the valuation level, cosmetics and duty-free sectors continue to perform well, and personal care products and supermarkets are in the undervalued range; At the performance level, the consumption recovery trend of optional upgrading was obvious in the first three quarters of 21 years; At the capital level, the institutions have the same expectations for the tax-free, cosmetics and alcohol chain sectors, and the configurations of jewelry and personal protective articles industries are different. On the whole, the high outlook and performance improvement prevailed during the year, and the double-click brought by the continuous improvement of performance and valuation in 22 years.
Investment main line and Prospect: we believe that "specialized and new" consumer goods retail high-quality target companies are more in line with the general trend of development. Focus on the segmentation field, but also on the mining of market segmentation demand; Fine operation lies in providing high-quality products; Characteristic R & D innovation is the basis for establishing product power and brand power; The popularity of emerging digitization is to continuously improve the business efficiency of enterprises, quickly supplement and shorten the distance from market demand. Therefore, companies that meet the above conditions are also expected to achieve high growth and strong profitability better than the industry as a whole, and their own technology, channels or private brands are recognized by the market and consumers, so as to shape the certainty and stability of long-term operation. Accordingly, sub industries that are expected to continue their business cycle in 22 years are recommended, including:
1) Liquor chain: deeply cultivate the liquor consumption terminal market, have professional operation team and liquor culture awareness, connect upstream wineries, professionally select high-quality liquor products, and take channel brands as product fidelity endorsement to meet the diversified, medium and high-end liquor consumption needs of the market; 2) Cosmetics: industry supervision is becoming stricter, which is conducive to the development of standardized head enterprises. Focusing on subdivided tracks, grasping channel advantages and being proficient in marketing is conducive to short-term scale expansion. It is optimistic about the composition and efficacy strength of R & D products for a long time, resulting in the improvement of bargaining power and brand power; 3) Personal care: the improvement of health awareness has led to the growth of penetration and usage. It has long been optimistic about R & D innovation and reform to improve performance, and refinement of matching functions to meet diversified needs. There are development opportunities for domestic brands in professional segments such as adult incontinence.
