Do your part in the short term and break through the long-term transformation. In recent years, the trend of yield has shown the characteristics of weakening trend and increasing fluctuation. Beta is difficult to find, and it may also be difficult to have a big opportunity in 2022. In this context, we recommend that investors do their part and prepare for long-term transformation. There are two directions of transformation: 1. Long volatility and take high-frequency trading as a way α； 2. Do fixed income + and extend to broader markets such as high-yield bonds, bulk bonds, REITs and US dollar bonds. This article focuses on how to do our duty in the past 22 years. Next year, we will give you more in-depth thinking in the direction of fixed income +.
A small "debt cow" accidentally opened. In 2021, the 10-year Treasury bond yield will decline by about 30bp, with a rhythm of "one song and four discounts". The "unexpected" opening of the bull market stems from the poor expectation of monetary policy, fundamentals and the rhythm of government bond supply. From the "five stage theory of interest rate" model we built, in January 2021, the fundamental and capital indicators point to the market and enter the "first half of the bull market"; Since August 2021, the signal is in the "relay adjustment period", and 2022 will enter the "second half of the bull market".
The economy is in recession, and the growth rate is low before and high after 2022. Judging from the output gap and credit pulse, China's economy is currently in a "recession" and continued to decline in the first half of 22 years. It is estimated that the real GDP growth rate in 2022 will be 5.3%, showing a "V" trend year-on-year under the influence of the base. Specifically, the growth rate of real estate investment may bottom out in the first quarter of 2022 and recover slowly; The problem of "lack of projects" in infrastructure construction remains, and it is difficult to have a breakthrough rebound; Exports remain resilient, but their performance is difficult to surpass that of 2021; Consumption and manufacturing will still be repaired, but the space is limited.
Monetary policy is easy to loosen but difficult to tighten. Overseas factors and inflation affect the pace. Monetary policy is expected to enter the "counter cyclical" adjustment mode in early 2022, and the relaxation range is still restrained: monetary instruments will transition from "structural" to "quantitative" in 2022, and "price" instruments are relatively cautious. The rhythm is mainly affected by two factors: the dislocation of monetary policy cycle between China and the United States and inflation. Overall, the positive effect of monetary policy on the bond market in the first half of 2022 is more certain.
The evolution of market ecology and the dilemma of allocation and transaction. In 2022, the 10-year Treasury bond may decline to 2.7%, showing a pattern of shock and bull. Strategically, it is recommended that investors maintain neutral positions as a whole, grasp the high interest rate and the rhythm of government bond supply, and pay attention to the poor pricing of local bond varieties. For trading, it is suggested to increase the long frequency around the capital side, and pay attention to quantifying the impact of the increase of trading players on the trading rhythm.
Risk tips: major policy shift, epidemic evolution exceeding expectations, and economic trend exceeding expectations
