Macro team
Operational guidelines for recent macroeconomic policies ( The Pacific Securities Co.Ltd(601099) securities macro Yuan Ye)
The first drop time point is still at the beginning of next year
In the release of the third quarter monetary policy implementation report of the central bank, in addition to deleting the expression of “general gate” and “flood irrigation” in the main policy ideas of the next stage, it also added the goal of “striving to complete the main objectives and tasks of economic development this year”. Does this mean that the central bank should make up for the “late” RRR reduction within the year? We make the following analysis:
The statement of the central bank’s monetary policy implementation report is very clear. It is the policy idea of the “next stage”, not the expected guidance of the next month or quarter. The central bank’s monetary policy implementation report for the four quarters of a year is generally released in May, August, November and February of the next year. In other words, the validity period of its “next stage” policy idea is not divided by standard quarters or months, but by the time interval of the release time of its monetary policy report. In this way, the monetary policy report in the third quarter is relatively more important, which is related to the opening layout that the capital market usually pays more attention to. In the monetary policy report of the third quarter of 2021, the expressions of “general gate” and “flood irrigation” are deleted, which is very important, indicating that the policy operation of the central bank in the next stage is more open, similar to the third quarter of 2018, and stronger than the same period in 2019 and 2020, that is, it is indeed reasonable to expect the implementation of a new round of easing policy. Is it necessary to take action within this year as guided by “striving to complete the main objectives and tasks of economic development this year”? On November 19, Premier Li Keqiang hosted a symposium of economic experts and entrepreneurs. At the meeting, Premier Li Keqiang made it clear that “since the beginning of this year, China’s development has encountered multiple challenges, such as multiple outbreaks, serious floods, rapid rise in commodity prices, and once tight power and coal supply Under the strong leadership of the Party Central Committee with comrades as the core, all aspects have implemented the deployment of the Party Central Committee and the State Council, the majority of market players have made great efforts, the overall economy has recovered steadily, the main objectives of this year can be achieved, and the annual task of employment can be completed ahead of schedule “. From the prime minister’s statement, it is not difficult to see that the main objectives of economic development this year can be achieved under the current circumstances, and the annual employment target of key concern has been achieved ahead of schedule. Under the situation that it is about to be realized and has been realized, it will be a little “waste” of valuable governance space to implement loose policies during the year. Since 2018, the central bank’s RRR reduction usually occurred in January, April, July, September and October. It is not difficult to see that it basically occurred one month after the quarter. This is also basically consistent with the timing of fiscal tax payment, the return of seasonal liquidity of commercial banks and boosting economic growth. Selecting these time points to implement policies can obviously achieve twice the result with half the effort and achieve more with one stone. Combing all monetary policy implementation reports since the fourth quarter of 2017, we also found the following rules. We summarize the key words repeatedly appearing in the main policy ideas in the next stage of the monetary policy report, and find that: first, it is very important to “do a good job in stabilizing growth… Work” or “keep the economy running within a reasonable range”. Note that there is an expression of “handling the relationship between stabilizing growth and…”. The two are essentially different. The former talks about increment and the latter about stock. 2、 “Main gate” is very important when it is different from “flood irrigation”. Of course, if neither of them appears, the effect is more ideal and the expectation can be more clear. 3、 The direction referred to by the word “forward looking” is an important superposition. It is not difficult to see from the table that the word “forward looking” appeared in the second, third and fourth quarters of 2018, which refers to a relatively clear meaning, that is, looking forward to the impact of Sino US trade disputes and deleveraging on the economy. In the monetary policy implementation report of the first three quarters of 2020, although “general gate” and “flood irrigation” do not appear at the same time, the term “forward-looking” is clearly mentioned in the monetary policy report of the first quarter of 2020, and its meaning also clearly points to the normal monetary policy. Therefore, the emergence of the word “forward-looking” really needs to be considered. 4、 Coordination between monetary policy and other policies. The rare mention of “several lifting” in the monetary policy report for the fourth quarter of 2018 indicates that the central bank will not appear as the main force in the next period. Combined with the above four points, let’s look at the monetary policy report for the third quarter of 2021. Among them, it did not mention doing a good job in stabilizing growth, nor did it mention that “the economy operates within a reasonable range”. There is no positive incentive, but there are no negative obstacles – at the same time, the expressions of “main gate” and “flood irrigation” are deleted.
