Biomedicine: the policy is relatively calm, and innovation and centralized procurement continue to be implemented. In the first 10 months of 2021, the revenue side increased by 22.80% year-on-year, and the total profit side increased by 76.70% year-on-year. The low base effect caused by the epidemic gradually decreased, superimposed with the negative impact of the epidemic on the manufacturing industry, and the growth data continued to decline. In November, the policy was relatively calm, the volume procurement of some products was steadily promoted, innovative drugs were in the harvest period, and the elderly care and rehabilitation incentive policy was added. In November, the global epidemic of covid-19 was repeated. The emergence of a new variant Omicron led to another increase in the number of patients in southern Africa. Its transmission ability and immune escape ability need to be observed.
New consumption: consumption recovery is slow. 1) Education industry: this month, the leading group of education and training announced the termination of K9 discipline business. Affected by this “policy bottom” sentiment, the leading stocks rebounded. However, we believe that the sustainability is poor, the overall education is suppressed by policies, and the future development path is not clear. On the whole, the cautious rating is maintained, and the opportunities mainly come from the individual stock game. 2) Pet cosmetics medical beauty and personal care industry: the share price of cosmetics and medical beauty sector is under pressure. In the early stage, it benefited from the 11 holidays and double 11 sales catalyst, resulting in overvaluation. There is a lack of driving factors this month, and the overall performance of the sector is relatively flat. 3) Wine and tourism catering: since November, due to the impact of multi-point local epidemic, the epidemic prevention policy has been tightened, and the performance of wine and tourism sector has been under pressure; The catering market has not yet returned to the growth track before the epidemic, and the profit recovery process of the sector is slow, which is lower than expected.
Food and beverage: the growth rate of liquor and beverage fell, and Maotai’s price stabilization strategy was significant. In October, the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value of China’s food manufacturing industry was 6.8%, an increase of 4.0pp over the previous month, and the year-on-year growth rate of industrial added value of wine, beverage and refined tea manufacturing industry was 9.2%, an increase of 5.6pp over the previous month. In October, the total retail sales of Enterprises above the designated size of beverages reached 22.48 billion yuan, an increase of 11.4% year-on-year and 24.8% over the same period in 2019. In November, Moutai’s price fixing strategy dropped somewhat, and the price of famous liquor remained high. The Baijiu price index of the Baijiu liquor company decreased slightly, which was a normal callback phenomenon after the liquor price had risen for a long time. In October, China’s Beer Enterprises above Designated Size produced 2.184 million kiloliters, a year-on-year increase of 16.4%, an increase of 3.3% over the same period in 2019, and the beer sales showed an upward trend. The latest data show that on November 17, the average price of fresh milk in China’s main producing areas was 4.31 yuan / kg, which is still at an all-time high, and the raw material cost pressure of dairy production enterprises is still large.
Risk tips: (Medicine) policy risk; R & D risk; market risk; (new consumption) macroeconomic weakness risk; long-term risk of epidemic prevention and control in China; increased risk of industrial competition. (food) impact of macroeconomic fluctuations; impact of raw material fluctuations; increased industrial competition.
