A-share strategy: chasing momentum or reversing, two ideas.
In November, there were many differences of ideas in the market. One is to continue to be optimistic about cyclical enterprises, iron and steel, nonferrous metals and mining industries. One is the reversal of judgment, which believes that the recovery of the epidemic in 2022 will lead to the recovery of similar industries such as transportation and retail. The last is to judge that China’s economic cycle has bottomed out. Industries in the new cycle, such as electronics, computers, or power investment, new energy and other industries, can obtain credit support.
We believe that the rotation of the general A-share industry often occurs at the end of the year and the beginning of the year. There needs to be a strong driving factor for trading on the left in December. One possibility is that the M1 data may bottom out and rebound in December. One possibility is that PPI may peak. We believe that both situations are possible. Therefore, it is suggested that investors can consider layout, transportation, retail and leisure services. Even if the new epidemic variants bring pressure, we think it will only delay the recovery of these industries, not stop them from recovering.
Global strategy: the epidemic is still the biggest interference.
The fourth quarter is generally a period of low oil prices and high gold prices. Superimposed with the disturbance of the epidemic, the risk of overseas markets in the fourth quarter should not be underestimated.
Investment strategy: we can consider paying attention to the left layout opportunities brought by new epidemic variants.
Risk tip: the global economy continues to be depressed, and the impact of the epidemic exceeds expectations.
