Daily data tracking
Three major indexes: the Shanghai index rose 0.36%, the Shenzhen composite index fell 0.01% and the gem index fell 0.64%
Shenwanyi sector: mining, light industry manufacturing and public utilities rose; Callback of electrical equipment, national defense industry, medicine and Biology
Concept sector: Lianban, papermaking and today’s headline concept rose; Power supply equipment, covid-19 pneumonia detection, in vitro diagnosis
Transaction and northbound capital: the transaction between the two cities was about 1146.5 billion yuan, a decrease compared with the previous trading day, and the net inflow of northbound capital was about 3 billion yuan
Hotspot tracking: disk analysis
The trend of A-Shares continues to differentiate, and the rotation between plates is still fast. The overall trend is in line with our judgment that the recent index will fluctuate in the short term and the long-term cross year market will continue to unfold. Caixin’s November PMI was 49.9, which deviated from the official announcement yesterday that the October PMI returned to above the withered and prosperous line. On the one hand, the sample composition of Caixin PMI index is more biased towards small and medium-sized enterprises, which is slightly different from the PMI of the Bureau of statistics; On the other hand, in November, although the prosperity remained basically stable, under the “double limit” correction of the current economy, production activities have been repaired, and the recovery of external demand has also led to the recovery of the demand side, improving both supply and demand. In terms of inflation concerned by the market, we see that the price of raw materials has peaked and fallen. Under the “supply guarantee”, the pressure on the cost side of middle and downstream enterprises is expected to be gradually relieved. At present, some economic data have warmed up, but the downward pressure does still exist. Today’s data also verify our point of view. We believe that some economic data have warmed up, with loose policy expectations and support at the performance level and capital level. It is expected that the cross year market in December is still expected to unfold slowly. It is suggested to pay attention to the structural investment opportunities of consumption + growth.
China’s Baijiu industry has the ability to cross the business cycle. In the case of high inflation data and the cost of mass consumer goods, the Baijiu industry is basically not affected by the upward trend of raw materials, and the gross profit margin can remain high. With the opening of the consumer sector, the Baijiu enterprises will have strong pricing power and brand advantage. Following the inflation peak, the leading companies are expected to enjoy a profit recovery from the price of raw materials in the medium and long term, which is expected to benefit from the upgrading of consumption and the peak season of consumption at the end of the year. It is expected that in 2022, leading companies of consumer goods are expected to usher in a new era of valuation and profitability. It is suggested that high-quality large consumer leading companies focusing on alpha attribute.
In terms of Hong Kong stocks, the Fed mentioned that accelerating taper may change the rhythm of subsequent overseas monetary policy, which is expected to end early in the first quarter of next year. After the Fed’s wording has changed, the market’s expectations of tightening have fallen, and the subsequent market will return to a rational view of inflation. Affected by this, the bottom of Hong Kong stocks rebounded, and the suppression of overseas liquidity eased. In addition, after the recent bottom seeking decline, Hong Kong stocks moved to the bottom of the box, and there is also a rebound demand in the short term, which is in line with the view we repeatedly mentioned earlier. At present, the negative factors of Hong Kong stocks are fully reflected in the index level, which has strong support below. In the long run, high-quality assets of Hong Kong stocks have left allocation value. It is suggested that investors can pay attention to core assets with cost performance and undervalued stocks with upward boom.
Hot spot tracking: industry reviews
The military industry sector index recently hit a record high and maintained a high outlook as a whole. As the core of China’s national defense industry, the military industry is currently in a high boom stage, and its fundamentals continue to improve. In the third quarter of this year, the operating revenue was 330.247 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.31%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 25.482 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 37.22%, and the performance showed an accelerating trend.
At the policy level, the Ministry of national defense recently said that it would speed up the construction of a new development pattern of weapons and equipment construction and spare no effort to speed up the modernization of weapons and equipment. The proportion of China’s military spending in GDP is lower than that of mainstream countries in the world, and the follow-up military spending budget is expected to continue to increase. Under the strategic goal of building a strong military in a century, the military industry is expected to achieve leapfrog development in the future driven by the core logic of “equipment upgrading + domestic substitution + military to civilian conversion”.
In terms of horizontal comparison, the annual growth rate of military industry is still in a low position in the science and technology growth sector. Since the beginning of the year, military industry has increased by 24%, while the growth rates of electrical equipment, new energy vehicles and electronics have reached 77%, 45% and 30% respectively. The peg of lithium battery, photovoltaic and other plates is generally about 1.5x, while that of national defense and military industry is about 1x. From the perspective of historical valuation, compared with the periodic high valuation in July 2020 and January 2021, the current industry valuation still has room to rise. With the subsequent easing of China’s monetary policy, superimposed with high performance growth and policy support, the cross year market of military industry is expected to unfold slowly.
Risk tip: the stock market is risky and investment should be cautious
