Chief Zhou’s view: how much can the Treasury bond yield go down?

Macro economy: in view of the moderate stability of real estate + the expected obvious deterioration of the epidemic, the 10-year Treasury bond will challenge 2.7%. Growth stocks and exports are friendly, small votes are better than large votes, and consumer stocks other than medicine are under pressure. The global market highly depends on the latest epidemic changes, and China’s elasticity is significantly smaller than that of the global market.

Computer: “from March 1, 2022, personal collection codes are prohibited from being used for business services” and “personal static collection barcodes are prohibited from being used for remote non face-to-face collection” have recently swiped the screen network. We believe that this move will benefit POS and other hardware manufacturers and other aggregate payment solution providers with payment licenses in the medium and short term. In the long run, digital currency has the attribute of legal tender, the ability to standardize payment and strengthen supervision, and accelerate the development trend.

Media industry: the peak of offline advertising in the second half of 2021 appeared in September. The scale of offline advertising in October decreased month on month compared with September, and was also slightly lower than that in the same period last year. From the sub channel data, the market volume of traditional advertising channels continues to decline, the year-on-year data of TV and traditional outdoor advertising turn positive to negative, and the publication cost scale of newspapers, magazines and radio continues to shrink. Ladder media advertising still continues the high scenery in the second half of the year.

 

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