1. Macro environment and policy status
At present, the economy is still in the recession quadrant. With the adjustment of energy prices, PPI is expected to peak and fall. The liquidity environment remains within the [relatively loose] range. It is expected that the follow-up monetary policy will begin to shift from "wide money" to "wide credit". The credit environment will be improved, which will lead to the recovery of social finance growth in the fourth quarter. In terms of positions, it is suggested to maintain the standard allocation of equity, maintain the standard allocation of interest rate bonds and convertible bonds, raise the high rated credit bonds to the standard allocation or high allocation, continue to allocate precious metals, industrial products and Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) at a low level, and maintain the standard allocation long RMB strategy. Suggested position: equity (61%) > bonds (23%) > commodities (13%) > cash (3%).
2. Views and suggestions on asset allocation
Quantitative view: in the latest data, the tfmai index reflecting the economic cycle decreased year-on-year, the month on month data increased, the tfemci reflecting financial conditions decreased, and the monetary factor was loose. On the whole, the economic growth has slowed down and the monetary conditions of the real economy have declined. It is suggested that the allocation of bonds can be appropriately reduced. In terms of equity, the current market credit is the dominant logic, the monetary factor is relaxed and the credit factor is tightened. It is suggested to reduce the allocation of shares.
Equity market view: since February, under the low base effect of the epidemic and the transition from stock economy to incremental economy, A-Shares have experienced the most sustained small cap Market since 2016. The low base effect of small cap stocks will probably disappear next year, with the exception of "dilemma reversal" and "hard technology" related sectors driven by incremental economy. Blue chip market or in real estate, real estate and other traditional economic underpinning expansion or quarterly pulse ushered in a phased market. Optimistic about two types of assets: 1) the "dilemma reversal" sector in the base effect logic, including cars and parts, pork, mandatory food, tourism, etc; 2) In the logic of incremental economy, photovoltaic, wind power, military industry, energy storage, new energy operation, etc. related to planned economy and sustainable prosperity.
Bond market view: under the background of downward pressure on the overall economy and increasing external uncertainty, it is expected that the policy will remain stable, and the cross-year capital is expected to remain stable. Whether to cut interest rates needs to focus on the mitigation of inflation factors in the next stage. With the current policy interest rate unchanged, the 10-year Treasury bond interest rate is expected to continue to be close to the 1-year MLF interest rate fluctuation of 2.95%. In terms of allocation, various assets in the subsequent debt base are expected to remain stable, with credit bonds and interest rate bonds accounting for about 54% and 13% respectively, and other assets accounting for about 33%.
View of non-ferrous metals: in November, the price of base metals was somewhat corrected due to the impact of the epidemic, but the global energy bottleneck is still there. The rise of energy cost will push the marginal cost of base metals up, and the price may rise further in the short term. The Fed's interest rate hike is expected to affect the price of precious metals. The market is worried that the Fed's monetary policy is difficult to be further relaxed, and the price of precious metals may continue to fluctuate, but it may usher in a rebound after the interest rate hike is expected to fall. Driven by the increased penetration of new energy vehicles and the recovery of wind power installed capacity, the demand for magnetic materials has fully warmed up, and the downstream replenishment is expected to drive the price center of major light and rare earth varieties upward.
Crude oil view: the main demand growth of crude oil next year is aviation coal, but there is still uncertainty in the face of the epidemic. According to the IEA forecast, the global crude oil demand will reach 99.6 million barrels / day in 2022, basically returning to the level before the epidemic. On the supply side, shale oil is expected to recover a small amount of growth in 22 years. Under the background of low crude oil inventory and global supply-demand balance, OPEC may face the dilemma of "releasing production capacity" and "controlling inventory".
Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) view: at present, the weather conditions outside China are conducive to soybean production and drying; The rising harvest and drying costs of corn in the new season, the obvious reluctance of farmers to sell, and the recovery of feed consumption have formed a certain support for China's corn price. At the same time, a bumper corn harvest in this season is a foregone conclusion; China's cotton price is likely to fluctuate and callback in the later stage. With the easing of the tight balance between global cotton supply and demand, the international cotton price is still fluctuated within the prediction range of 75-105 cents per pound; The sharp rise in global crude oil prices and tight energy supply will continue to support the high price of edible vegetable oil, and the average prices of soybean oil, palm oil and rapeseed oil will rise to varying degrees in 21 / 22; Pig prices rebounded slightly in the short-term or shock. In the medium and long term, it is clear that the bottom of the current pig cycle has been built due to the gradual elimination of fertile sows.
Risk tips: the progress of economic repair is less than expected, the liquidity is tighter than expected, the spread of mutant strains is more than expected, overseas uncertain factors, etc.
