Core summary
Investment suggestion: we judge that the systemic risk faced by the A-share market in the fourth quarter is not large, and there is a structural market. We suggest focusing on high boom and high growth tracks with performance certainty. Suggested configuration: (1) carbon neutralization theme. Nowadays, China is fully promoting the goal of “carbon neutralization”. Clean energy such as wind and light is accelerating to replace traditional energy. We can pay attention to new energy, environmental protection and energy storage. (2) New economic theme. High-end technology manufacturing industry may be an important driving force for future economic growth. It is suggested to focus on chip semiconductors, computer software, high-end intelligent manufacturing with accelerated domestic substitution and rapid industry growth. (3) The theme of consumption recovery. At present, China’s PPI is at a high level and CPI is running at a low level. The scissors gap between the two is expected to converge, and the industrial profits will shift from the upstream to the middle and downstream. It is expected that there will be some opportunities in the consumer sector. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to “Guochao” cosmetics and medical beauty. (4) Biomedicine theme. Medicine is an industry with long-term value, and there are short-term opportunities before the epidemic is completely controlled. (5) undervalued financial theme. At present, the valuation of track stocks has far exceeded that of other sectors, and there is a strong demand for make-up in the undervalued financial sector.
Hot topic focus: (1) An increase in the number of overseas outbreaks may trigger a ferment of market sentiment. According to a comprehensive report on November 30, the spread of covid-19 mutant virus Omicron strain poses new challenges to epidemic prevention in various countries. Academician Zhong Nanshan said that due to more changes in the receptor binding site of Omicron strain, its harmfulness and transmissibility need to be further observed. We believe that the emergence of new strains Now it will bring more challenges and uncertainties to epidemic prevention, and the global covid-19 epidemic cycle may be prolonged. Therefore, it is recommended to pay attention to epidemic prevention materials and covid-19 detection, such as Shenzhen Mindray Bio-Medical Electronics Co.Ltd(300760) , Shan Dong Kexing Bioproducts Co.Ltd(688136) and other related subjects. (2) E-cigarettes have been officially incorporated into the tobacco regulatory system, and the development of industry standardization has accelerated. Regulations for the implementation of the tobacco monopoly law of the people’s Republic of China The amendment means that e-cigarettes that have been separated from legal supervision have been officially incorporated into the regulatory system. The e-cigarette industry will usher in an era of laws to follow and standardized development of the industry. Although the detailed rules are not clear, there are some uncertainties in taxes and channels. However, from the production side, the implementation of regulatory policies will improve the industry access threshold, and leading manufacturers with high production standards and technical level are expected to benefit. Therefore, we will continue to track: relevant subjects such as SIMORE international, Anhui Genuine New Materials Co.Ltd(603429) . (3) We believe that we are actively developing the “silver economy” On the premise of, 1) there may be some opportunities for pension real estate and supporting pension service facilities including innovative communities and pension institutions; 2) On the premise of controllable risk and sustainable business, pension finance represented by health insurance products for the elderly may have development potential. Therefore, it is recommended to pay attention to: Hengfeng Information Technology Co.Ltd(300605) , Xiangyumedicalco.Ltd(688626) and China Life Insurance Company Limited(601628) .
Revenue performance of hot topics: among the hot topics last week, the top gainers were rare earth, rare earth permanent magnet, tungsten ore, electronic cigarette and small metals. Affected by the recovery of market sentiment and policies, the corresponding plates are also sought after. The top five declines were express industry, livestock and poultry breeding, biological breeding, chicken industry and online games. The main reason is that the current valuation of relevant concept plates is high, and the recent tightening of capital has led to significant adjustment.
From November 22 to November 26, among shenwanyi industries, the top five gainers last week were nonferrous metals, environmental protection, medicine and biology, basic chemical industry and steel; The top five declines were agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, media, national defense, military industry, banking and social services. From the cumulative net inflow last week, the top five cumulative net inflows are food and beverage, non-ferrous metals, steel, environmental protection and comprehensive; The top five cumulative net outflows are power equipment, mechanical equipment, basic chemical industry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery and public utilities.
Risk warning: the promotion of relevant policies is not as expected; Changes in industry regulatory policies.
