[strategic view]
Market review in November: most of the world's stock markets performed poorly in November, A-Shares performed relatively steadily, while Hong Kong stocks performed poorly and entered a bear market rhythm.
By the end of the year, we reviewed the calendar effects of A-Shares and Hong Kong shares in history. The historical data since 2000 show that some indexes of A-Shares and Hong Kong shares have calendar effect in a specific period of time, among which the calendar effect of A-Shares is more obvious. Specifically, (1) the A-share index has a higher rising probability after new year's day and is stronger than the trend before New Year's day. (2) before the Spring Festival, the A-share index often has a good performance. (3) in the two weeks before the national day, the trend of the A-share index is often weak, and the rising probability after the National Day is higher.
Combined with the calendar effect reflected in the history of A-Shares and the characteristics of the current market structure, we believe that the current A-share market can still be. China's "steady growth" measures are gradually being fulfilled, and the new variant of covid-19 virus is expected to have little impact on China's economy; The repeated overseas outbreaks may slow down the pace of monetary tightening of European and American central banks. Combined with the historical calendar effect, we believe that there are still structural opportunities for A-Shares in December, and it is a better choice to actively explore individual stocks from bottom to top.
[risk tips]
The central bank tightened monetary policy;
The progress of epidemic development exceeded expectations.
