1. Changes in the market environment: the real estate dilemma is the largest variable, and the policy increases the weight of steady growth + risk prevention
Fundamentals: 1) economic growth returns to rebalancing, and the important support item is the improvement of consumption margin + export toughness; 2) The real estate industry is facing downward pressure. The bottom recovery of real estate in this round will be slower than that in 2014-2015. The market expects that real estate investment, sales and new construction will turn negative in an all-round way, relevant industrial chains such as home appliances / building materials / construction and decoration will be impacted, and the expansion of local finance and entity credit will also be dragged down; 3) Inflation risk tends to ease. It is expected that PPI will fall sharply and CPI will pick up slowly next year.
Liquidity: 1) monetary policy is dominated by China, and the environment of stable growth + risk prevention + easing inflation opens policy operation space. The first half of the year is a window period of marginal easing, and the interest rate center of 10Y treasury bonds is expected to move down marginally; 2) Social finance is expected to stabilize and recover, but the credit expansion is limited, suggesting two concerns: first, increase structural support for entity green transformation, including the green upgrading of carbon neutralization industry and traditional industries; second, promote the capital market to become the hub of scientific and technological innovation, and there is great room for direct financing to improve.
2. Change of industrial logic: common prosperity + carbon neutralization, reshaping the medium and long-term industrial development pattern
General tone: around the long-term goal of 2035, “per capita GDP reaches the level of moderately developed countries”, common prosperity and carbon neutrality are the long-term main line in the future.
Industrial upgrading direction: 1) scientific and technological innovation, strengthen basic research and technological innovation, and vigorously develop high-end manufacturing and digital economy; 2) Green transformation, new energy vehicles, new energy, energy storage, energy-saving equipment and materials and other industrial chains meet new growth points; 3) Consumption upgrading focuses on meeting the needs of individuals for a better life, focusing on the increment of service consumption demand in the whole life cycle (fertility / Beauty / leisure / health / pension, etc.) and personalized and differentiated new consumption and quality consumption upgrading demand.
Challenges in some areas: education, real estate, Internet antitrust, and standardization of market order in some high-income links will usher in normalized supervision.
3. A-share market outlook: the overall fluctuation is upward, and grasp the three main lines of innovation + Green + consumption in the medium term
Industry configuration: 1) scientific and technological innovation, chip, innovative medicine, medical devices, new materials, national defense and military industry, digital economy and other sectors are valued at a historically low median level; 2) Green industry, the diffusion of investment opportunities in industrial chains such as new energy vehicles, new energy, energy storage, energy conservation and environmental protection, the problem of over valuation exists in the short term, and the valuation of wind power is relatively in the historical average; 3) The consumption margin improved, but there were twists and turns. The overestimation of the food, beverage and beauty care sector is expected to ease, and the profit expectation of outdoor activities is expected to turn positive.
