1、 Overseas markets: Fed officials turn to hawks, and taper is likely to accelerate. In November, the US non farm employment was lower than expected, but the unemployment rate and labor participation rate improved. At the same time, the momentum of soaring inflation remained unchanged. The US core CPI rose 4.6% year-on-year in October, at a high level in recent 30 years. Under the pressure of high inflation, officials of the Federal Reserve changed their stance. US Treasury Secretary Yellen said that the job of the Federal Reserve is to ensure that the current high inflation will not evolve into a destructive and long-term “wage price spiral” like that in the 1970s; Fed chairman Powell also gave up the expression of “temporary inflation” and will discuss whether to complete the weight reduction ahead of schedule at the interest rate meeting in December.
2、 The prime minister mentioned “timely RRR reduction”, and there is a great possibility of subsequent RRR reduction. Recently, Premier Li Keqiang mentioned the possibility and necessity of “reducing the reserve requirement in a timely manner and increasing support for the real economy, especially small, medium and micro enterprises”. On the one hand, long-term funds can be released by reducing reserve requirements and replacing expired mlf950 billion yuan; On the other hand, guide financial institutions to support the real economy, especially small, medium-sized and micro enterprises, through RRR reduction. In the future, China will still implement the “wide currency + differentiated credit” combination under the counter cycle, and the RRR reduction can release the signal of steady growth and boost market confidence.
3、 The regulatory position supports the rational financing of real estate enterprises and stabilizes market expectations. Since November, there has been a signal of fine-tuning of real estate policies, and the first bank and the two sessions have collectively expressed their support for the rational financing of real estate enterprises in response to the Evergrande event. On December 3, Evergrande group announced in the Hong Kong stock exchange that it may not be able to perform its guarantee liability for an overseas bond. Subsequently, the bank and the two sessions stated that the spillover impact of Evergrande event on the stable operation of the capital market was controllable and would not affect the normal financing function of the medium and long-term market. At this stage, according to different local conditions, we should focus on meeting the mortgage needs of the first house and improved housing, reasonably issue real estate development loans and M & A loans, increase support for affordable rental housing, and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate industry and market.
4、 Investment strategy: A-Shares continue to “focus on me”, and the cross-year market is still good. Under the disturbance of high inflation and covid-19 mutant, the monetary policies of western countries led by the United States may face more constraints. The December interest rate meeting of the Federal Reserve is likely to accelerate the process of taper. Different from overseas, China’s monetary policy is dominated by China. Recently, Premier Li Keqiang mentioned “timely RRR reduction”. We judge that it is more likely to implement the subsequent RRR reduction. The central bank will still implement the policy combination of “wide currency + differentiated credit” under the counter cycle. In addition, since November, there has been a signal of fine-tuning of real estate policies. The bank and the two sessions have expressed their support for rational financing of real estate enterprises, released the policy signal of steady growth to the market, and became the driving force for A-Shares to interpret the “cross year market”. In terms of industry configuration, Focus on three main investment lines: 1) new energy (vehicles) (smart grid, energy storage, wind energy, photovoltaic, etc.); 2) related to consumption upgrading, food, beverage, medicine, etc.; 3) the “real estate” sector benefiting from the marginal change of the real estate policy of “implementing policies for the city”, and the individual stocks focus on the central enterprises with increased market share. The theme investment focuses on: “double carbon, military industry, consumption upgrading”, etc.
Risk tips: repeated outbreaks outside China; Large fluctuations in overseas markets; The game between China and the United States has intensified.
