Text summary
Macro: what is the meaning of "timely RRR reduction"? ① Under the downward pressure of the economy, the employment situation may be severe, which is an important basic plate. ② At this time, the proposed RRR reduction may improve the policy initiative and reduce the impact. ③ The possibility of a comprehensive RRR reduction is greater, and the time may be in mid December.
Strategy: clear and optimistic: Policy dawn, restlessness open. 1、 Clear and optimistic: Policy dawn, agitation open. ① The restless upward market started, the real estate risk and policy stability that the market is most concerned about have a clear marginal change, the bottom line thinking of stable growth and stable employment has returned, and the restless core drive: downward pressure and policy expectation under the performance window. ② The probability of hard landing of real estate is reduced. Evergrande is a case of risk disposal, without secondary financial risks. The margin of real estate financing policy has warmed up and tends to be normalized. Tracking the third round of local auction, central enterprises and local state-owned enterprises to recover. ③ The probability of standard reduction was significantly improved. Before the Spring Festival, the probability of reducing the reserve requirement has increased significantly. The decision-making level has recognized the downward pressure on the economy and the impact of the epidemic, service industry and real estate on unemployment. Since October, it has continued to fine tune. The next six months will be the main window for China's loose monetary policy, and the bottom of this round of credit is being built. ④ The sharp decline of China concept shares belongs to the correction of high-risk assets, which is more likely to be affected by the correction of global high-risk assets. The epidemic has accelerated, and there has been a significant correction of global high-risk assets including bitcoin, US NASDAQ and China concept shares. 2、 Restless configuration: brokerage flagman + growth track + policy theme. ⑤ Securities companies are expected to become the flag bearer of this round of agitation. In addition to the medium and long-term logic of wealth management, In the short term, there are policy support (liberalization of insurance and financing, pilot of comprehensive account management), performance growth (transaction volume continues to be trillion yuan, Q4 high growth) + valuation advantages (pb1.7x & 48% quantile). Banks and real estate will also be beneficial to valuation repair. Space and sustainability will be observed. The expectation of economic stabilization after the RRR reduction is expected. ⑥ growth track: photovoltaic, lithium battery and military industry. Next year, the growth rate of the whole a will drop, the growth track will increase, and the scarcity will continue to attract incremental funds. Recently, the public offering will pick up, and with the expectation of loose liquidity, the investment direction of incremental funds will still flow in the future Growth track. ⑦ Policy theme: methane emission reduction, power grid, new infrastructure. The concept theme with small cap stocks and secondary new shares as the carrier, methane emission reduction (coalbed methane collection, landfill, environmental protection monitoring), power grid (power grid construction, energy storage, energy informatization), new infrastructure (metropolitan area, power new energy, hard technology).
Fixed income: expectations of RRR reduction and comments on Evergrande event. ① We believe that the RRR reduction has a high probability of landing in 2021. The specific time point may be before the MLF expiration date on December 15. There are the following two reasons: first, the RRR reduction is conducive to the realization of a "soft landing" for the economy. Secondly, RRR reduction can reduce the financing cost of the real economy. ② In terms of the impact on the bond market, the RRR reduction will ignite the enthusiasm of the bond market to do more in the short term. The yield of 10-year Treasury bonds may drop to 2.8%. With the fermentation of broad credit expectation, there will be callback pressure in the first half of 2022. ③ The statement of the regulatory authorities on the Evergrande event is consistent with the information transmitted in October. On the one hand, the event of default indicates that Evergrande will accelerate the process of "asset downsizing". On the other hand, it is expected that the real estate policy will be transmitted from the financing end to the sales end. The improvement of cash flow and fundamental repair are still the wind vane for the stabilization and rebound of the real estate market. ④ Finally, according to the CSRC's statement on the same day, "We support high-quality real estate enterprises to issue bonds and use them for mergers and acquisitions of enterprises in danger. One of the important ways to solve the risk situation of the real estate market in the future is to accelerate industry integration, promote the survival of the fittest, and achieve the policy purpose of" supporting the healthy development of the real estate market "from the root.
Note: this year corresponds to 2021, next year corresponds to 2022, and last year corresponds to 2020. The currencies involved are RMB without special instructions.
Risk warning: global epidemic spread risk and vaccine effectiveness; Macroeconomic growth is less than expected; Inflation soared sharply in the short term and monetary policy tightened rapidly; Historical experience does not represent the future.
