Comments on key news of the week: without fear of peripheral disturbance, A-Shares maintain their concentration
Peripheral disturbance factors continued to increase this week: Omicron infection cases have been confirmed in the United States; Powell said that high inflation is no longer “temporary”, and it is appropriate to discuss accelerating debt reduction at the next meeting; Inflation in the eurozone hit a 25 year high. While A-Shares maintained a strong concentration under the external disturbance. In November, PMI returned to the expansion range and the steady growth policy is expected to heat up, which may be an important support.
Macro highlights: 1. PMI returned to the expansion range in November; 2. Powell continuously released hawkish remarks; 3. Inflation data in the euro zone in November hit a 25 year high; 4. OPEC + announced to maintain the original production increase plan; 5. Leaders of the State Council said that China will reduce the reserve requirement in due time and increase support for the real economy, especially small, medium and micro enterprises; 6. Us nonfarm payrolls data are mixed.
Resumption of A-share market: other service industries performed better
Index and style: A-Shares rose, dominated by other services and midstream manufacturing. The Shanghai Composite Index and the China composite 500 led the gains, with weekly gains and losses of 1.22% and 1.14% respectively. From the absolute performance of style, other services and midstream manufacturing, small cap, low P / E ratio and blue chip stocks are dominant. In terms of style relative performance, the ultra-small market value and small market value are superior to the market performance, and the growth performance of science and innovation is weak.
Industry performance: most of them rose, with architectural decoration, mining and national defense industry leading the increase.
Leading index: in recent 20 days, CSI 1000 dominated, and non-ferrous metals, steel and national defense industry led the rise.
Valuation tracking: A-share valuation rebounded, and most industry valuations rose.
Review of overseas market: global stock market ups and downs
Important global stock indexes rose and fell, with Brazil’s ibov, Taiwan Stock Exchange and Shanghai Stock Exchange indexes relatively dominant.
U.S. stock market: the index fell in an all-round way, most industries fell, utilities, real estate and information technology ranked first, and the value and market style dominated. Most of the index valuations are down, and the industry valuation is down as a whole.
Hong Kong Stock Market: the index fell across the board, the industry fell across the board, and the energy, industrial and financial sectors led the gains.
The index valuation has declined in an all-round way, and the industry valuation has declined as a whole.
Performance of major categories of assets: RMB appreciation, China’s risk appetite rebounded
Global markets fell this week, with emerging markets outperforming developed markets. Commodity prices mostly fell, CRB industrial metals rose, LME gold, LME copper and Brent crude oil fell. In terms of interest rate bonds, the short-term interest rate of US bonds rebounded and the long-term interest rate fell; In terms of credit bonds, China’s 3-year and 5-year AAA + medium note credit spreads narrowed; In terms of convertible bonds, the CSI convertible bond index rose. In terms of exchange rate, the US dollar index and RMB exchange rate rose, while the euro exchange rate fell. In terms of volatility, the VIX index rebounded.
In terms of commodity relative performance, copper gold ratio, oil gold ratio and London gold / CRB industrial metals all declined. In terms of the relative performance of the bond market, the interest rate spread between China and the United States has expanded and that between Germany and the United States has narrowed. In terms of the relative value of stocks and bonds, the revised risk premium under Wande’s full a caliber has dropped, and the risk premium of S & P 500 has rebounded.
Leading assets: convertible bonds, US dollar and US Treasury bond futures dominated on the 20th.
Risk warning: Overseas volatility intensifies; Unexpected changes in macroeconomic policies; Regulatory policy exceeded expectations.
