The light of science and technology will inject energy into A-Shares next year. This round of technology market is likely to replicate the performance of U.S. stocks in the 1980s, which will run through the medium cycle and superimpose with a new round of KangBo cycle recovery.
Cycle positioning: the first inventory cycle in which the mid cycle boom goes up goes down. In this round of mid cycle, US infrastructure and real estate will become important forces of capital expenditure; Leading industries represented by new energy, new materials and digital economy are expected to bring incremental investment. The upward cycle of capital expenditure and the decline range of short cycle are relatively mild, and the leading industries remain prosperous. Next year, the world will enter the inventory destocking cycle. Stagflation is not the main contradiction, and recession and easing are the core of cycle positioning. China's economy led overseas for 1-2 quarters and is now in the late stage of recession.
Major categories of assets: commodities are weak. There is no need to worry too much about equity assets, and A-Shares can be moderately allocated. In the downward stage of the first inventory cycle, safe haven asset bonds have a high probability, bulk commodities have weakened, and stocks in developed countries have outperformed emerging markets. The mid cycle boom is upward, and there is no need to worry too much about equity assets. From the perspective of China, the risk premium level of stocks and bonds is at the historical average, which shows that the current downward expectation that A-Shares have been priced more. Under the expectation of recession and easing policy, A-Shares are expected to reflect comparative advantages compared with other emerging economies, and A-Shares can be appropriately allocated.
A-share Outlook: structural market, U-shaped trend, dominated by small and medium-sized growth style. The economic growth center moves down, and there is little bull market. The probability of next year is also a structural market. The track direction is more important than the index, and the overall performance will continue. Combined with the judgment of profit and valuation, there will be no rain or sunshine for A-Shares next year, the volatility has increased, and the fluctuation source comes from overseas. The market rhythm may be U-shaped throughout the year. The downward revision probability of overseas US stocks was digested in the first half of the year, and then the market consolidated and rose. Considering the scarcity premium of growth in the recession and loose environment, the growth style of dominant small and medium-sized market capitalization this year will probably continue.
Industry configuration: Super configuration technology. At the industry level, whether macro logic or meso industrial logic, the main line of the market next year points to scientific and technological growth. This includes the leading industry trends represented by lithium battery, photovoltaic and semiconductor; There are also backbone enterprises represented by TMT soft technology and specialized special new manufacturing industry, which have reversed their plight and repaired their valuation. Super high prosperity growth and TMT technology should be the strategy throughout next year. From the perspective of profit distribution in the industrial chain, we should pay attention to the growth direction of high prosperity in the middle reaches. Benefiting from the narrowing of price scissors and downward demand, essential consumption can still show strong profitability toughness and configuration value. Traditional value blue chips are the platform for economic growth, and the historical valuation center is difficult to be used as a reliable reference. It is recommended to lower the allocation of sectors and select individual stocks with growth logic.
Special strategy: layout around the main line of science and technology. The curtain of the fourth industrial revolution has opened, and new technologies represented by artificial intelligence, mobile Internet, big data and XR are profoundly changing the world. From the perspective of supply, the pursuit of core technology catch-up / consolidation and independent and controllable development is imminent, and the semiconductor industry chain, large aircraft industry chain, military industry and new energy should be given priority support; From the perspective of demand, as the successor of mobile Internet, 5g application and metauniverse will become the final scene of new technology landing / cross integration, which will lead the development of relevant industries. Many fields such as communication, consumer electronics, semiconductors, underlying software and media content production are expected to usher in sina tide.
Risk tip: China's liquidity easing in 2022 is lower than expected; Covid-19 epidemic duration is uncontrollable; Overseas inflation continued to exceed expectations; Geopolitical risks.
