Since 2019, A-Shares have ushered in long-term and stable incremental funds. There have been great changes in the total amount and structure of incremental funds of a shares, which has deeply affected the liquidity environment of the whole A-share market together with the reform of registration system. Investors pay more and more attention to the incremental capital of A-Shares and the whole capital. We clearly pointed out in the "return to the trough - prospect of A-share incremental capital in 2021" launched at the beginning of this year that the capital level of A-share in 2021 may be worse than that in 2019 and 2020, but it is expected to be better than that in 2017 and 2018. Looking back on the market this year, the increase of Wande A is significantly lower than that in 2019 and 2020, but higher than that in 2017 and 2018, The annual performance is highly correlated with the predicted change of incremental funds at the beginning of the year, which further shows the guiding significance of incremental funds for the study and judgment of the general trend.
Looking forward to 2022, we believe that the end of the transition period of real estate regulation and new asset management regulations will have a far-reaching impact on Residents' asset allocation; The flow dividend of Internet "base purchase" is gradually ebbing, and residents' base purchase behavior will be more quantitative, rational and habitual in the future; With the continuous inflow of medium and long-term funds such as public offering, insurance, financial management and foreign capital, the process of A-share institutionalization will also advance steadily. In terms of the volume of various incremental funds, the issuance of public funds is expected to slow down, private placement will maintain rapid expansion, and bank financing and insurance are expected to resume net inflow; IPO and refinancing are expected to remain stable; Considering the substantial improvement of corporate profits and the decline of the scale of lifting the ban in 2021, it is expected that the company's dividend and repurchase will increase and the reduction of major shareholders' holdings will decrease next year; The net capital increase is expected to continue to grow on the basis of last year and this year.
Generally speaking, there is no shortage of incremental funds in the market in 2022. What is lacking is high-quality assets with medium and long-term growth logic and capable of resisting economic downturn or realizing dilemma reversal. The structural bull market under the shortage of A-share assets is expected to continue.
Risk warning: measurement error, large deviation between assumptions and reality, and fund issuance is less than expected
