Major A-share indexes: all a / SSE 50 are near the 3-year 60% quantile of P / E ratio; Shanghai Stock Index / CSI 300 is near the 3-year 55% quantile of P / E ratio; CSI 500 is at the 3-year 11% quantile of P / E ratio, and the 3-year quantile of CSI 1000 P / E ratio has been raised to near 40%. The P / E ratio / P / B ratio of Kechuang 50 is at the low quantile value of 9.1% / 7.1% since its establishment. Recently, CSI 1000 has performed well and split its structure, mainly based on the contribution of small cap stocks in the industrial chain such as TMT, auto zero, photovoltaic wind power and so on. It is worth noting that the current CSI 1000 price to book ratio (PB) quantile has been at the 3-year 97% quantile level.
Main indexes in overseas markets: at present, the Omicron variant virus has invaded the United States, Britain, Australia, Japan and other countries, and the recent covid-19 epidemic in many countries has rebounded significantly. The panic in overseas markets has intensified, and the valuations of major stock indexes have moved down, while A-Shares have increased slightly, with obvious characteristics of “focusing on me”.
Shenwan industry: compared with last week, the 1-year PE percentile of building decoration / building materials / real estate increased by 38.5% / 19.2% / 13.5% respectively, and the real estate chain valuation continued to be repaired. Medicine and biology decreased by 15%. In terms of PE absolute value, defense and military industry / Electronics / food and beverage increased by a large margin, while leisure services / medicine and biology / media decreased by a large margin. Plate rotation is quite different from last week. Affected by the impact of the epidemic, the valuation of leisure services has declined for two consecutive weeks. At present, the sectors where PE has been in the high score for one year mainly include public utilities (early catalysis: the low price of Haifeng project exceeds the expectation), building decoration (early catalysis: the marginal relaxation of real estate policy), electrical equipment (early catalysis: the high prosperity of new energy), agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery (early catalysis: the rebound of pig price), automobile (early catalysis: the mitigation of core shortage and the expected increase in volume), and communication (early stage catalysis: yuancosmos and submarine cable). The popular sectors in the early stage where PE is in the low quantile of one year include food and beverage (35% quantile value in one year), medicine and Biology (15%), electronics (15%), cycle (4% – 8%) and leisure services (0%). Under the logic of wide currency and wide credit, there is still some room for repair in the valuation of relevant sectors (financial real estate).
Popular track: Baijiu / power battery link is still at reasonable quantile level. This week, the P / E ratio of military industry, power battery and energy storage increased significantly; The P / E ratio of medical services, medical beauty and CXO sectors decreased. At present, the sectors with high P / E ratio in one year mainly include military industry (prophase catalysis: performance certainty and high increase expectation), wind power (prophase catalysis: cost reduction exceeding expectation and installed capacity increasing expectation), energy storage (prophase catalysis: policy promotion, high prosperity of new energy), new energy vehicles (prophase catalysis: sales continue to exceed expectation, Q4 battery has price increase expectation), and industrial mother machines (prophase catalysis: high-end manufacturing capital expenditure + domestic substitution). The popular sectors in the prophase with a P / E ratio of 1-year low include semiconductors, new materials, CXO, medical services and innovative drugs. There is no significant reduction in the performance expectation of popular tracks in the near future.
Risk tip: there is error in data statistics
