Summary of key reports
Total research
From the experience of the six countries to see when China’s consumption will rise — the third part of the series of common prosperity
Release date: December 2, 2021
Analyst: Gao Ruidong / Zhao gege
Referring to the historical data of six countries, we find that when the urbanization rate slows down, the consumption rate will hit the bottom and pick up. China’s consumption rate has bottomed out in 2010 and started to pick up. Looking ahead, under the background of the rapid improvement of aging, the end of shed reform and the marginal slowdown of urbanization, it is expected that the proportion of China’s consumption in GDP will continue to increase. From a long-term perspective, although China’s potential economic growth is declining, the consumption rate is still improving. Under the general program of common prosperity, the consumer demand of residents continues to release. It is expected that the growth rate of China’s consumer expenditure will stabilize at about 6%.
Relaxed supply constraints, economic stabilization and recovery — forecast of economic data in November 2021
Release date: December 1, 2021
Analyst: Gao Ruidong / Zhao gege / Liu Wenhao; Contact: Liu Xingchen
In the fourth quarter, it is expected that the year-on-year apparent growth rate of fixed investment, consumption and export will continue to decline due to the increase of the base. However, under the background of continued efforts of macro-control policies and strong resilience of foreign demand, it is expected that the two-year compound economic growth rate will pick up in the fourth quarter, and the recovery of new kinetic energy may be better than market expectations.
The effect of ensuring supply and stabilizing price is prominent, and the supply constraints are significantly alleviated — PMI data comments in November 2021
Release date: November 30, 2021
Analyst: Gao Ruidong
In November, the expansion of manufacturing industry improved significantly, and the expansion of construction industry continued to accelerate. First, under the measures of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices, supply constraints have been significantly eased, manufacturing capacity has been released faster, and the export index has rebounded sharply driven by the foreign trade boom; Second, the price index peaked and fell, the differentiation of enterprise structure narrowed, and the prosperity of downstream small and medium-sized enterprises improved significantly; Third, in November, special bonds were intensively issued, and the progress of infrastructure construction continued to accelerate. Looking ahead, efforts will continue to be made to ensure supply and price stability, and there will be sufficient “surplus grain” for fiscal cross cycle adjustment.
Layout “spring agitation” — top ten gold stocks in December 2021
Release date: November 30, 2021
Analyst: Zhang Yusheng / Gong Jian; Contact: Liu Fang
The growth style was better in November. The growth style performed best in November, with a cumulative increase of 4.9% as of November 26, followed by the consumption and cycle sectors, up 2.3% and 2.2% respectively, while the financial and stability styles performed relatively poorly, down 3.4% and 1.3% respectively. In November, conceptual plates such as yuancosmos and rare earth permanent magnet were active. At the same time, leading overseas listed companies such as Alibaba, Tencent, pinduoduo and BiliBili have successively disclosed their financial reports, which has also had a certain impact on the performance of some A-share related companies.
How does the epidemic in South Africa affect China’s stock market—— Review of stock market performance in past outbreaks
Release date: November 29, 2021
Analyst: Zhang Yusheng / Gong Jian; Contact: Liu Fang
Recently, the number of confirmed cases of covid-19 in South Africa has increased sharply, or it is mainly related to new strains. On November 23, 2021, the newly confirmed cases of covid-19 in South Africa surged from 312 the previous day to 18586, and maintained a new increase of more than 1000 cases per day for many consecutive days, and the mutant strain Omicron may be the culprit. On November 26, 2021, who listed the variant strain Omicron as “variant of concern” (covid-19 variant strain), and said that the transmission speed of this strain may be faster than that of other VOCs.
