Market review: the index fluctuated higher, and Omicron's impact on the A-share market was relatively limited
In the market, the Wande all a index fluctuated higher in the past five trading days, with a cumulative closing increase of 1.00%. The turnover was slightly lower than that of last week, but the one-day turnover remained above 1.1 trillion yuan, and the transaction remained active. The total net inflow of northward funds this week was 15.117 billion yuan. In the past five trading days, public utilities, architectural decoration, computers, non-ferrous metals, medicine, biology and other sectors led the increase; Leisure services, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, media, household appliances, electrical equipment and other sectors led the decline.
China's manufacturing PMI rebounded in November and the production side improved significantly
According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics on November 30, China's Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' index (PMI) recorded 50.1% in November, up 0.9 percentage points from the previous month, returning to the expansion range. Overall, the repair on the demand side is still slightly weak, and the improvement on the production side may be the main driving force. In "maintaining supply and stabilizing price" Under the combined action of policy force, power supply restrictions and other factors, the improvement trend of China's production end in November was more obvious, and the production index recorded 52.0%, an increase of 3.6% over the previous value. In terms of production costs, the purchase price index and ex factory price index of main raw materials were 52.9% and 48.9% respectively, down 19.2 and 12.2 percentage points from the previous month, reflecting that the reduction of raw material costs led to the decline of enterprise production costs. In terms of demand, the new order index was 49.4%. Although it was still below the dry and prosperous line, it increased by 0.6% compared with the previous value, reflecting that the demand side was still slowly repairing.
At present, China's PPI has basically peaked in October and gradually declined in November. Under the background of strong determination of energy transformation, the investment in the traditional energy industry may be tightened steadily, and the policy intervention in the face of upstream prices may continue. After the coal consumption peak in winter gradually drops, the tight pattern of energy supply and demand will be gradually improved, or the central margin of upstream prices will be driven down. Therefore, the high profit logic of the upstream industry may be difficult to continue, while the production cost pressure of the midstream manufacturing industry is significantly reduced, and the market style may gradually switch from the upstream Pro cyclical plate that maintained a high prosperity in the early stage to the midstream and downstream undervalued industry plate in the process of continuous adjustment. However, the supply constraints of the high-energy consumption midstream industry are still in place. It is suggested to focus on iron and steel In the allocation of chemical and other industries, we focus on the impact of carbon emission quotas on the basic pattern of the industry. At the same time, we are still optimistic about the opportunities of downstream consumer sectors in the cross-year market.
The US non farm employment data in November was lower than expected, or it is difficult to change the Fed's expectation of accelerating the reduction of bond purchase
On December 3, according to the data released by the U.S. Department of labor, the U.S. added 210000 non-agricultural jobs in November, far less than the 550000 people expected by the market, and the unemployment rate fell again to 4.2%, the lowest since February 2020. However, this "less than expected" non farm employment data may be difficult to change. The Federal Reserve announced to speed up the pace of taper at the FOMC meeting on December 15. This week, when Powell and US Treasury Secretary Yellen attended a two-day hearing of the Senate Banking Committee, they said it was time to give up the saying of "temporary inflation". The pace of debt purchase reduction may be faster than the US $15 billion per month announced earlier this month. Policymakers will discuss the timetable for speeding up the reduction of debt purchase at the December meeting, The code reduction may be completed several months earlier than expected. Although the non-agricultural employment data released since then did not perform well, the labor participation rate increased. The ISM manufacturing PMI employment index in November released this week also increased significantly, reflecting the difficulty of enterprise recruitment began to improve. Of course, Omicron may once again impact the U.S. job market. As of March 3, 10 states in the United States and China, including Brazzaville, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Utah and New Jersey, have successively reported cases of Omicron virus infection. It may not come too soon to raise interest rates. It is suggested to follow up and pay attention to the signals released at the FOMC meeting of the Federal Reserve this month. At the same time, the A-share market continues to go out of the independent market this week, and the market sentiment is significantly weakened under the influence of the external market. The resurgence of the overseas epidemic may support China's export prosperity to a certain extent. The negative impact on the overall A-share market may be relatively limited in the short term. It is suggested to focus on the epidemic situation in China and the change of the wind direction of monetary policy.
Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) successively lowered the price of silicon wafer, and the photovoltaic industry pattern may usher in adjustment
This week Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) , Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) successively lowered the quotation of silicon wafers, and the destocking of manufacturers at the end of the year may be one of the main reasons. Among the trend investment opportunities of energy transformation, the photovoltaic concept sector has performed strongly this year. Boosted by the industrial policies of the 14th five year plan, the growth rate of photovoltaic installed capacity is still supported. With the recent signing of long silicon material orders totaling 28.7 billion yuan and long silicon wafer orders totaling 29.3 billion yuan in Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) , the silicon wafer duopoly pattern led by Longi Green Energy Technology Co.Ltd(601012) and Tianjin Zhonghuan Semiconductor Co.Ltd(002129) may be broken, and the market competition and industrial pattern may lead to an adjustment period, In 2022, the centralized release of production capacity of traditional manufacturers and new entrants may weaken the price of silicon wafers, and the upstream profits may be gradually transferred to the downstream. On the whole, the photovoltaic industry still has a high prospect, but the internal differentiation may continue. It is suggested to focus on the opportunities in the middle and lower reaches of the industrial chain in 2022.
Zhou Du's view: continue to focus on undervalued blue chips and high boom growth opportunities
At the macro-economic level, China's economic structure transformation is accelerating. The main logic is to follow the keywords of "common prosperity", "green development", "institutional opening", "scientific and technological innovation" and "digital economy", and focus on adjusting the industrial monopoly, uneven income distribution and discriminatory system of small and medium-sized private enterprises in the national economy In addition, as a global power, China's determination in energy transformation should not be underestimated. When implemented in the capital market, risks and opportunities arise from it. It is suggested to focus on investment opportunities in the orderly transformation and development of the real estate market, the reform and innovation of pharmaceutical consumption, the localization and transformation of core parts and components, and the accelerated development of new energy industry chain, and be vigilant against risks and impacts in the economic structure adjustment.
In terms of the market, the market has always maintained a narrow consolidation this week, with a sharp rise on Friday. The previous weak plates walked many times before coming to power, showing a recovery, and the switching of market hot spots is still frequent. At the same time, the market turnover of more than 1.1 trillion yuan has become the "normal", and the continuous net inflow of foreign capital is in line with the general trend in last week's weekly report. In terms of the industry, the architectural decoration, medicine and biology sectors performed strongly this week. The concepts of rare earth, lithium battery and covid-19 detection were well built, and the performance of the industry was basically in line with our configuration suggestions in the previous period.
At present, the liquidity of A-Shares is expected to continue to strengthen. Premier Li Keqiang mentioned the "timely reduction of reserve requirements" when meeting with the president of the IMF on December 3. The upward pressure on prices is now under control. The marginal easing of policies to hedge the downward pressure on the economy may be approaching. The overall adjustment may still take structural monetary tools as the main means, and the key areas and objects in the economic structure transformation may be the main focus. At the same time, the transition period of the new regulations on asset management is coming to an end, breaking the net worth transformation trend after rigid cashing, or improving the attractiveness of the stock market and guiding the stable entry of funds into the market. The large volume of pension funds, private equity funds and access to foreign capital will also continue to boost the liquidity of the A-share market. It is suggested to continue to pay attention to the undervalued blue chip targets and high boom growth opportunities in securities companies, consumption and other sectors.
In terms of industry, (1) The adjustment trend of the real estate sector is clear. On December 3, Evergrande group announced that it might not be able to fulfill its guarantee responsibility. The Guangdong Provincial People's government, the central bank, the cbcirc and the CSRC successively made a positive response to Evergrande's risk events. The "Evergrande event" that had continued to ferment before Finally, there was a formal announcement. Under the expectation in advance and the layout adjustment of multiple departments in advance, the probability of systemic risk was small, and the further downward space of the real estate sector that was basically out of bad was limited. The more profound significance of this event may be that the brutal growth stage of the real estate market has officially ended, and the orderly development pattern has gradually stepped onto the historical stage. Under the background of the shift of policy expectations and the gradual transition of the real estate cycle, the leading central enterprises with healthy balance sheet and strong liquidity support may have some valuation repair opportunities. It is recommended to pay attention to it. (2) The fundamental logic of the pro cyclical sector may change significantly. The global commodity prices fall and China's determination to transform energy is stronger. Although the coal mining and other sectors have experienced a deep correction before, they still have great uncertainty. It is recommended to deal with them carefully. (3) At the end of the year, the peak season and loose expectations are strong, and the superimposed profits are expected to improve. The consumer sector may usher in a restless market in spring. The opportunities in compulsory consumption may be relatively better. At the same time, the valuation differentiation of the fine molecular sector is still obvious. It is suggested to pay attention to the high-quality assets with high attractiveness and continuous improvement of fundamentals at the current valuation level. (4) The current valuation level of the non bank sector is at an all-time low. It may usher in repair opportunities under the boost of the expectation of stronger liquidity. It is recommended to focus on it.
Medium and long term strategy
In the medium and long term, we suggest investors continue to focus on three directions. Consumption sector: medicine and consumption upgrading. Long term high-quality track: carbon neutralization, scientific and technological innovation and new infrastructure. Stable bottom position variety: big finance.
Risk statement
Global liquidity tightened more than expected; The global epidemic situation has exceeded expectations; Macroeconomic growth fell faster than expected; The global energy crisis has further intensified; Inflation pressure continues to rise; Technological development is less than expected.
