Key investment points
Last week (11.29-12.3), the stock index opened low, the Shanghai index rose 1.22% to close at 3607.4 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.78% to close at 14892.05 points, the small and medium-sized 100 rose 0.35%, and the gem index rose 0.28%; In terms of industry sectors, architectural decoration, mining, national defense and military industry led the increase; In terms of theme concepts, the rise of Lianban index, beating index and first board index ranked first; The average daily turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets was 1166.91 billion. The turnover of Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets decreased by 1.12% compared with the previous week, of which Shanghai stock market increased by 1.25% and Shenzhen stock market decreased by 2.72%; In terms of style, small and medium-sized stocks have a comparative advantage, of which Shanghai Stock Exchange 50 rose by 1.07% and China Stock Exchange 500 rose by 1.14%; In terms of exchange rate, the closing point of US dollar against RMB (CFETS) was 6.3690, down 0.35%; In terms of commodities, ice WTI crude oil fell 2.69%, Comex gold fell 0.09%, Nanhua iron ore index rose 4.21%, and DCE coking coal fell 5.07%.
The next year's market is expected to open, and the market index may rise. At present, both the gem index and the CSI 300 index are approaching the end of this round of shock market. The subsequent CSI 300 index and the gem index will face direction choices, and the market volatility and trading volume may increase. From the historical law, from December to January of the next year, the market usually has a cross year market, and the index performs better. The reason behind this is, At the end of the year and the beginning of the year: (1) China is in an intensive period of major conferences, and the market's expectations of good policies are rising; (2) commercial banks have more credit, the market liquidity is usually good, and the capital interest rate tends to fall; (3) The market is temporarily in the vacuum period of economic data and performance data, and the impact of performance on the index has subsided, but the boosting effect of capital and emotion on the index is heating up. Near the end of the year, the range of market shocks tends to converge first and then expand. It is expected that this year's market index will gradually get out of the cross-year market driven by capital and emotion. As a popularity indicator, securities companies may take the lead The new energy and science and technology sectors with high prosperity are expected to relay. Subsequently, as the market enters the disclosure period of the annual report and the first quarterly report, the impact of the performance end on the index will gradually increase.
China's PMI returned to the expansion range and real estate financing continued to improve. Overseas, the Omicron strain has a large number of mutations and is likely to be more infectious. According to who statistics, the Omicron strain has appeared in 19 countries and regions. Strictly prevent the spread of "Omicron, a mutant strain of covid-19 virus", has become a new goal of global epidemic prevention. It is expected that more countries will introduce corresponding prevention and control measures to prevent the global economic recovery from being disturbed again. Under the uncertain epidemic situation, the European and American stock markets may fluctuate greatly in the next 1-2 weeks, which will interfere with the trend of a shares. In China, the PMI of China's manufacturing industry in November was 50.1%, the former value was 49.2%; PMI of non manufacturing industry was 52.3%, the former value was 52.4%; The comprehensive PMI was 52.2% and the previous value was 50.8%. The manufacturing PMI returned to the expansion range and the economic margin improved. Guangdong Provincial People's Government interviewed Evergrande and agreed to send a working group to Evergrande Real Estate Group Co., Ltd. to urge and promote enterprise risk disposal. The central bank said that domestic real estate sales, land purchase and financing have gradually returned to normal, and some investors have begun to buy US dollar bonds of Chinese real estate enterprises. Due to the financing behavior of financial institutions to real estate enterprises, it has basically returned to normal in October. It is expected that the month on month growth trend of real estate loans will continue. We expect that the risk event of Evergrande group will not affect the normal operation of China's capital market, banking and insurance industry. With the recovery of the financing end, the real estate fundamentals continue to improve, and it is expected that the real estate related industrial chain will usher in the opportunity of valuation repair.
Investment suggestion: the rapid upward period of commodity prices has passed, and China's economy has basically recovered to the pre epidemic level. It is expected that China may be in the stage of marginal decline in inflation and marginal weakening of economic prosperity in the fourth quarter, At this stage, it is suggested to allocate assets from the following four main lines: (1) the financial sector. At present, the valuation of track stocks has far exceeded that of other sectors, and there is a strong demand for make-up in the financial sector with undervalued value, especially in the securities sector. (2) Countercyclical sector. In the fourth quarter, the marginal demand for exports and inventory replenishment weakened, and the countercyclical sector may perform under macroeconomic cross cyclical regulation. (3) the sector with booming production and sales. The current performance improvement expectations from strong to weak are: national defense and military industry, household appliances, transportation and computers. (4) Downstream consumer sector. It is expected that the scissors difference between PPI and CPI will converge in the future, and the consumer sector will probably achieve excess returns in the next half year. Pay attention to the downstream consumer sector with price increase expectations, such as food and beverage.
Risk tip: macroeconomic downturn, recurrence of the epidemic, fluctuations in overseas markets and deterioration of China US relations.
