Key investment points:
Recently, the market has basically digested the impact of the new mutant strain, but with the rise of uncertainty in global economic recovery and the continuation of downward pressure on China’s economy, the expectation of economic stimulus policy is gradually becoming clear. On Friday, Premier Li Keqiang proposed “timely RRR reduction”, which has become an important signal for the overweight of this round of “wide monetary” policy and the opening of the “wide credit” cycle.
We still maintain the previous view: in the future, the main contradiction in the market will be transformed from “quasi stagflation” to “recession mode”, the policy orientation will become loose, and the direction of policy force is expected to be: the financial force will be in front, the monetary policy will be “I-oriented” more flexible, the credit supply will be stable, and the total amount will be restructured. After the prime minister’s “notice” to reduce the reserve requirement, the central bank is expected to announce the reduction within December and replace the 950 billion MLF line that will expire this month. In addition, the setting of economic policies for next year at the meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and the central economic work conference in mid December and the disclosure of financial data in November are also expected to further clarify the expectations of economic stimulus policies. Higher risk appetite and loose policy space will give investors a good opportunity to layout the new year.
In terms of industry configuration, standing at the moment, we believe that we should focus on two key clues. First, stick to the high boom continuation direction of “Ning combination”, and focus on the military industry / new energy vehicles / new energy power generation sector whose boom is still in the upward channel, but the configuration can be further extended to small and medium-sized markets; The two is the layout recovery reversal plate, but the performance vacuum period needs to pay attention to the certainty of the fundamentals improvement. At this stage, we can focus on the high end Baijiu that is still low in one year and has a good start. The main concerns are: brokerage, military industry, Baijiu, new energy vehicles (lithium resources, power batteries), new energy operation, energy storage, power grid, photovoltaic, wind power, etc.
Risk tips: 1 Global liquidity inflection point; 2. The impact of bankruptcy of the real estate company exceeds expectations; 3. The epidemic situation exceeded expectations; 4. Inflation exceeded expectations.
