Double financing balance
As of December 3, the two financial balances of Shanghai Stock Exchange reported 986.095 billion yuan, a decrease of 513 million yuan compared with the previous trading day; The two financial balances of Shenzhen stock exchange were reported at 858.077 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.292 billion yuan compared with the previous trading day; The two cities totaled 1844.172 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.806 billion yuan over the previous trading day.
Latest views
On Friday, the stock indexes of A-Shares rose in shock. As of the close, the Shanghai index rose 0.94%, the Shenzhen Component Index fell 0.86%, the gem index fell 0.34%, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 rose 0.92%, the Shanghai 50 rose 0.96%, and the China Securities 500 rose 0.99%. The number of gainers in the two cities was 2634, higher than the average value of 2116 last week and 1094 the previous trading day. The limit was 77, lower than the average value of 81 last week and 79 the previous trading day. The net purchase of northbound funds was 9.221 billion yuan, the average value of last week was 1.142 billion yuan, and the net purchase of the previous trading day was 3.021 billion yuan. The turnover of the two cities was 1136.4 billion yuan, breaking trillion yuan for the 31st consecutive trading day. A-share volume breakthrough laid the foundation for the next market. At the same time, facing the downward pressure on the economy in the first quarter of next year, Premier Li Keqiang mentioned “timely RRR reduction” when meeting with georgiyeva, President of the International Monetary Fund, and the RRR reduction is expected to start again at the end of the year. According to our previous analysis in liquidity driven market, “the market is expected to gradually move from tight credit to stable credit + structural wide credit”. In this expected RRR reduction, we believe that we may replace part of MLF through comprehensive RRR reduction, mainly to hedge the maturity of MLF and stabilize inter-bank liquidity. Based on the above analysis, we believe that the basic conditions for liquidity driven market have been met. Superimposed on the economic expectation of maintaining stability in the first quarter of next year and the return of PMI above the boom and bust line in November, the market in December should enter the stage of trend establishment. Therefore, the market should break through one after another at the beginning of this week to consolidate the upward trend, but in case of entanglement, rising and falling, etc, Then the market probability will fall again.
Topic tracking
Today’s attention: green power, aerospace, Baijiu theme
1. Green power theme: on December 3, the Ministry of industry and information technology issued the “14th five year plan” for industrial green development, which proposed to accelerate the promotion and application of electric kilns, electric boilers and electric power equipment in qualified industries and regions. Encourage factories and parks to carry out the construction of industrial green, low-carbon micro grid, develop roof photovoltaic, decentralized wind power, multiple energy storage and high-efficiency heat pump, and promote the efficient and complementary utilization of multiple energy. On November 24, the central Deep Reform Commission proposed to promote the construction of power market mechanism to adapt to the transformation of energy structure and orderly promote the participation of new energy in market transactions. On the same day, the State Grid issued the inter provincial power spot trading rules, proposing that all power generation types and enterprises can participate in inter provincial power spot trading, and encouraging inter provincial green power trading. The development of green power industry provides policy support.
Suggestions: Qingdao Tianneng Heavy Industries Co.Ltd(300569) (300569), Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) (600011)
2. Aerospace theme: at the press conference held on December 3, the relevant person in charge of the Civil Aviation Administration of China said that the Boeing 737max aircraft is expected to resume the commercial operation of China’s existing fleet by the end of this year or early next year, and restart the introduction of new aircraft. And encourage airlines, telecom operators and Internet enterprises to develop air network services. The China Manned Changzheng Engineering Co.Ltd(603698) Office revealed on December 2 that in order to give full play to the comprehensive benefits of China’s space station, China’s first space science popularization education brand “Tiangong classroom” will be officially launched soon. According to the third quarterly report, the month on month data continued to exceed expectations, the cumulative growth rate of the industry as a whole in the first three quarters was high, and the prosperity of the industry was further verified. The success of aerospace is inseparable from the breakthrough of cutting-edge technologies in many fields. A considerable part of these technologies have the characteristics of transformation to the civil field. After industrialization, they can bring greater increment to the national economy and have high investment value.
Suggestions: Hunan Boyun New Materials Co.Ltd(002297) (002297), Avic Heavy Machinery Co.Ltd(600765) (600765)
3, Baijiu theme: from the three quarterly report, Baijiu was stable and excessive under the premise of high base last year, showing strong resilience. At the industry level, the upgrading trend of industry consumption remains unchanged, which is conducive to the overall healthy development of the industry. At the company level, several liquor companies launched equity incentive plans this year, which boosted the confidence and enthusiasm of the industry. The continuous release of internal reform dividends provided strong support for the development of the industry. Near the end of the year, the traditional selling season of Baijiu is also coming.
It is recommended to pay attention to: Cofco Biotechnology Co.Ltd(000930) (000930), Anhui Gujing Distillery Company Limited(000596) (000596).
Risk statement
The epidemic has not been effectively controlled, the macro economy has unexpectedly declined, the liquidity crunch has intensified, and the industrial policies are lower than expected.
