One week market view
At present, the A-share market has entered the stage of weak fluctuation, the market uncertainty has increased, the risk appetite has decreased, and the performance of small and medium-sized stocks is relatively active. There are three main reasons: first, the Omicron mutation virus has spread rapidly, and the subsequent impact is uncertain; Second, the non-agricultural sector in the United States was less than expected, coupled with the virus disturbance, and the uncertainty of the follow-up debt reduction rhythm increased; Third, the fund assessment period is approaching, and the institutional risk appetite is declining. At present, the overall environment of the A-share market is relatively mild. Although the spread of the mutated virus has added uncertainty, the pressure on real estate funds is expected to be relieved, the marginal easing signal of liquidity is enhanced to support the bottom of the market, and it is expected to fluctuate upward in the future. In terms of structure, the current market is still in a period of confusion. The cyclical plates such as architectural decoration and mining rose ahead last week, but the plate rotation does not show an obvious law, and there is great uncertainty about the sustainability of the cyclical plates. In this context, sectors related to medium and long-term deterministic high-end manufacturing, digital economy, carbon neutralization and consumption upgrading may be more favored by funds.
Overseas, the new Omicron virus is spreading in many countries, and there is uncertainty about the future deduction path and impact. At present, China is limited by the impact of the mutated virus, so we need to pay attention to the suppression of the virus on the recovery of service-oriented consumption. The Omicron variant virus has rapidly spread to 38 countries. At present, the number of new cases in the world has rebounded to nearly 700000 every day, and Israel and Japan have been closed down one after another. However, the current understanding of the virus is still not comprehensive, and the mortality and severe rate have not been confirmed, The chief scientist of the World Health Organization said that “it is impossible to predict whether the Omicron strain will become the mainstream strain of covid-19”. Therefore, there is great uncertainty in its follow-up interpretation path and impact. In addition, the US non-agricultural sector was lower than expected in November, and there are also variables on how the follow-up Federal Reserve debt reduction will be implemented. China strictly implements the “clearing” policy. At present, it is relatively limited to be affected by the mutated virus. The A-share market has obvious toughness compared with the overseas stock market. However, under the background of repeated epidemic, the follow-up epidemic prevention policy may be further overweight, and the cost of contact services such as catering, wine and tourism to repair the transportation industry may be lower than expected.
In China, regulators released signals to support real estate financing, and real estate is expected to remain stable; Premier Li Keqiang released the signal of RRR reduction, the expectation of loose liquidity increased, and the overall environment of the A-share market was mild. On the one hand, on December 3, China Evergrande announced that it was very likely to materially default on overseas debt. Then, the bank and the two sessions spoke one after another to maintain market stability, the margin of short-term real estate regulation policies slowed down, and the market expectation was relatively stable. From the commodity market on that day and night, relevant varieties of the real estate industry chain also showed sufficient toughness. On the other hand, on December 3, Premier Li Keqiang said that “we should reduce the reserve requirement in a timely manner and increase our support for the real economy, especially small, medium and micro enterprises”. The market’s expectation of loose liquidity is also in line with our judgment that “the first half of the year is a window period of stable growth and marginal easing”. At present, the macro environment of the A-share market is mild, the market has bottom support, and it is expected to fluctuate upward in the future.
