Macro view: 1 China's economy has remained stable for a long time, showing a parallel trend of long-term stable leverage and high-quality development. Carbon neutralization and population structure will keep the economy moderate inflation in the long run, and guide the change direction of economic structure and the profit distribution path of common prosperity. 2. The trend of real estate policy is determined, the investment attribute of real estate is transferred to consumption attribute, and the endogenous economic fluctuation is becoming more and more stable. In the medium term, with the gradual improvement of China's supply, the profit distribution will be balanced again, and the economy is expected to stabilize and recover. 3. The structural imbalance of overseas short-term supply recovery and the uncertainty of epidemic situation inhibit the rapid recovery of supply. The normalization of epidemic situation in the medium term and overseas supply recovery will be the trend. It is only a matter of time before the global economy returns to normal, but the global economy lacks long-term economic action. 4. There are obvious signs of credit recovery in US monetary policy, but the upward strength of interest rate is still limited, and the impact of inflation on interest rate is limited. However, the lack of endogenous power of the economy itself and high macro leverage still greatly restrict the upward space of US interest rate. 5. China's short-term credit is subject to the recovery rhythm of global supply, especially the improvement of supply and demand pattern in the United States needs more time.
Market view: 1 With the marginal improvement of energy constraints, the economic profit distribution is expected to be balanced, and the market beta market will turn to alpha market. 2. The rhythm of overseas supply recovery and the epidemic situation are uncertain, so the interpretation of alpha market is uncertain in terms of transaction time, but the direction of the economy returning to normal in the medium and long term is determined. Combined with the valuation and profit of alpha plate, it is low in the short term. 3. The A-share market funds are particularly abundant under the background of the real estate downturn, and the allocation impulse is still strong. The short-term alpha plate has made an obvious run, and the short-term transaction risk has increased slightly, but it does not affect the trend characteristics of the market. 4. Hong Kong technology stocks are at the bottom affected by policies and U.S. liquidity, and U.S. stocks represented by Nasdaq 100 are still in a long-term upward trend.
Trading strategy: 1 We are optimistic about the CSI 100 and CSI 300 indexes, and pay attention to the risks brought by the style deviation of beta and small and medium-sized stocks. 2. Be optimistic about the head companies of medicine, food and beverage, real estate and auto parts, and pay attention to the long-term configuration value of military industry. 3. Pay attention to the systematic upward opportunities of manufacturing leaders after real estate stabilizes. 4. Optimistic about the repair of Hong Kong stock Internet Index and the long-term upward trend of Nasdaq 100.
Market resumption: this week, the overall plate continued to pick up, led by stable style, and the consumption style fell. Architectural decoration, mining, national defense and military industry led the increase; Leisure services, medicine, biology and media industries fell significantly. The valuation of most industries fluctuated slightly, the valuation of national defense and military industry led the increase, and the valuation of leisure services led the decline. The PE level of automobile, electrical equipment and food and beverage industries ranks in the forefront of the market, and the valuation level of mining, real estate and transportation industries still lags far behind the market.
Index performance: the market fluctuated upward this week, and most of the main indexes rose. All a, CSI 300, CSI 500, gem index and SSE 50 rose by 1.00%, 0.84%, 1.14%, 0.28% and 1.07% respectively; Kechuang 50 fell 1.03%.
Style performance: in terms of market style, small cap stocks continued to lead the rise, and medium valuation continued to rise. Large cap stocks, medium cap stocks and small cap stocks all performed well this week, rising 0.43%, 0.66% and 1.32% respectively. In the valuation sector, the medium valuation sector continued to lead by 1.63%; Overvalued and undervalued sectors rose against the trend.
Short term market sentiment: compared with last week, the average daily turnover of major indexes decreased across the board. In addition to the gem index, the turnover rate of major indexes increased month on month. The overall trading activity of the industry rebounded compared with last week. This week, northbound funds flowed sharply into the A-share market. During the week, the main inflow industries of land stock connect were electronics, electrical equipment and chemical industry; The net outflow of food and beverage, transportation and communication industries is large. The number of shares held by the industry increased on a weekly basis. The top three were public utilities, chemical industry and architectural decoration; The first three are media, computer and steel. The transaction volume of the two financial institutions decreased, and the net financing inflow narrowed. The implied volatility of SSE 50ETF options decreased by 0.94 percentage points, and the current value is 14.31%; The current value of the S & P 500 volatility (VIX) index is 30.67, up 2.05 from the previous value.
Long term market sentiment: the yield of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 dividend - 10-year Treasury bonds is currently - 0.74%, down 0.08 percentage points month on month, above the average and in the historical quantile of 65%; The current value of A-share implied equity risk premium (ERP) is 2.17%, down 0.12 percentage points month on month, in the historical quantile of 59%. After rising continuously for three consecutive weeks, the A-share risk premium turned downward, and the market risk appetite rebounded. Compared with last week, ERP in most popular sectors fell.
Risk tips:
Economic downside risk; The epidemic rebound exceeded expectations; Liquidity tightening exceeded expectations; Overseas economic recovery is weaker than expected; Big country game Risk
