Iron and steel: the high-frequency data reflect that the recent iron and steel demand shows signs of improvement. The year-on-year decline in the weekly apparent demand for rebar contracted from 30% in the early stage to less than 10% last week, and the year-on-year decline in the average daily turnover of construction steel also narrowed significantly. The reasons for the improvement of demand may come from two points: first, the inventory cycle of the industrial chain, the emotional overshoot during the early price decline, and the downstream market purchase after the price rebound; Second, after the relaxation of the margin of real estate financing, some projects suspended in the early stage continue to live. In addition, on the supply side, the emergency response to heavy pollution weather in Hebei is frequent, and the supply and demand force promotes the continuous rebound of steel prices. In fact, the early decline of steel price and iron ore price has been huge. The steel price has fallen by more than 1500 yuan / ton since October, while the iron ore price has fallen by 60% – 70% since May. In late November, the mood was overshoot. However, we believe that this round of demand repair is only a phased repair in the downward trend of the large demand cycle, because real estate sales still have not completed this round of short-term downward trend, and the credit contraction of the physical industrial chain will not be reversed so soon. Therefore, this round of steel price and iron ore rebound belongs to the nature of oversold rebound, and it is difficult to predict the rebound space and time. It is suggested to look for opportunities in the growing new material industry and pay attention to Zhejiang Yongjin Metal Technology Co.Ltd(603995) , Zhangjiagang Guangda Special Material Co.Ltd(688186) , Fushun Special Steel Co.Ltd(600399) , Zhejiang Jiuli Hi-Tech Metals Co.Ltd(002318) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , etc.
Coal: the work plan for the signing and performance of medium and long-term coal contracts in 2022 (Exposure Draft) was released. The benchmark price of the long-term association increased by about 31% to 700 yuan / ton compared with the previous 535 yuan / ton, and the price center increased significantly. Considering that the output of power coal in the industry is about 3.5 billion tons, the increase of the benchmark price may increase the total profit of the industry by about 500 billion yuan (35 * 165 / 1.13), coal enterprises with a high proportion of Changxie coal have the opportunity to make up for the rise. The coal price increase may also speed up the market-oriented reform of electricity price. Recently, we believe that the policy regulation risk, coal price adjustment risk and real estate demand side decline risk of the coal sector are fully released, and we are optimistic about the rebound of the sector. In the medium and long term, we believe that the constraints on the coal supply side remain Strong. Under the background of small annual growth in demand, coal will be a scarce resource in the next few years, and the stock capacity or high profits. Now the mainstream stocks will pay dividends according to 50-60%, and the dividend rate of coal stocks is expected to still reach the double-digit level. The coal assets need to be re priced and continue to be optimistic about the investment value of the sector. Give priority to the target of high market coal proportion and flexible capacity growth, and focus on power coal stocks: Beijing Haohua Energy Resource Co.Ltd(601101) , Yanzhou Coal Mining Company Limited(600188) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) . Metallurgical coal stocks are suggested to pay attention to: Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , Pingdingshan Tianan Coal Mining Co.Ltd(601666) , Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co.Ltd(000983) , Huaibei Mining Holdings Co.Ltd(600985) , Jizhong Energy Resources Co.Ltd(000937) , Shanxi Coking Co.Ltd(600740) . Anthracite recommended attention: Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) . Coke stocks are recommended to pay attention to: Kailuan Energy Chemical Co.Ltd(600997) , Jinneng Science&Technology Co.Ltd(603113) , China Xuyang group, Shaanxi Heimao Coking Co.Ltd(601015) . In terms of thermal coal and thermal coal, the long-term association pricing may be adjusted to boost industry confidence. This week, the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal produced in QinGang Shanxi was 1090 yuan / ton, unchanged on a week-on-week basis. In terms of supply, state-owned enterprises and large mines are implemented according to the price limit level, and the price is relatively stable; The national coal trading conference was held on Friday (December 3). In the early stage, there were concerns in the market, the procurement of traders and power plants decreased, and the effect of replenishment of power plants in many places was obvious. There was a price reduction phenomenon. Most coal mines said that there was a backlog of inventory, Yulin, Inner Mongolia Eerduosi Resources Co.Ltd(600295) The prices of some coal mines in other places decreased slightly. In terms of import, the performance of the foreign trade market is relatively cold, and the quotation is still strong. In terms of demand, the overall inventory of power plants is high. As of December 2, the total inventory of power plants in the eight coastal provinces has reached 33.55 million tons, an increase of 6.06 million tons over the same period last year, while the daily consumption has increased slowly, the available days have reached 17.4 days, the procurement has slowed down and the price has been reduced. This week, the price of 5500 kcal thermal coal produced in QinGang Shanxi was 1090 yuan / ton, unchanged on a week-on-week basis. At the national coal trading conference, the national development and Reform Commission issued the work plan for the signing and performance of medium and long-term coal contracts in 2022 (Draft for comments), which adjusted the pricing mechanism of the coal long-term association and still adopted the “benchmark price + floating price” The benchmark price is raised from 535 yuan to 700 yuan, and the reasonable floating range is 550 yuan – 850 yuan / ton, The determination method of floating price adds the comprehensive price index of national coal trading center on the basis of the original comprehensive price index of power coal around Bohai Sea (bspi), cctd Qinhuangdao comprehensive transaction price index of power coal and China coastal power coal price purchase index (Ceci) (NCEI), that is, the weights of the benchmark price and the four indexes are 50% and 12.5% respectively. If the final adjustment is implemented, the coal price center of Changxie will be greatly improved. The policies of coal enterprises with a high proportion of Changxie will be more favorable, which will greatly boost the industry.
In terms of coking coal, in terms of coking coal, the price is stable and the import is restricted again. Mainstream coking coal prices have been stable this week, The price (tax included) of the main coking coal depot produced in Shanxi of Jingtang Port was increased by 2350 yuan / ton, which was flat on a weekly basis. The price of individual coal types in Shanxi and Shaanxi was corrected, and the price of fat coal in Wuhai, Inner Mongolia rebounded. In terms of supply, the profit of coal mines was still high, which led to the active operation of coal mine production, and most coal mines still maintained a high operating rate. In terms of import, 243 vehicles were opened to traffic on the 4th day of customs clearance at Ganqi Maodu port this week (month on month – 266 vehicles), affected by the mutant strain, the entry of bulk coal trucks was suspended on Friday, and the raw coal price rose slightly. On the demand side, the profits of coke enterprises improved, the production willingness increased, and some coke enterprises began to replenish the warehouse. On the whole, China’s coal is weak, the coal mine operating rate is still high, and China’s supply is relatively loose. We will continue to pay attention to the downstream coke and real estate infrastructure demand situation. In coke, profits continue to improve, and demand may improve marginally. As of December 2, the price of secondary metallurgical coke in Tangshan was 2560 yuan / ton, which was flat on a weekly basis and operated stably. In terms of supply, the central environmental protection supervision team has settled in Shanxi, and some coke enterprises have strengthened their efforts to limit production. In the early stage, most coke enterprises have implemented the production restriction policy. This inspection is expected to have a limited impact on output. In addition, the prices of several varieties of coke coal have decreased, the high price coal inventory of coke enterprises has been basically consumed, the profits of coke enterprises continue to rise month on month, and the production willingness has been improved. In terms of demand, with the approaching of the East Olympic Games, the production restriction requirements in Tangshan, Hebei Province have been raised again this week. Many steel mills in the region have stopped stoking, increased shutdown and maintenance, and the operating rate of blast furnace and hot metal production have continued to decline. The CSRC answered the reporter’s questions on Evergrande group, believing that Evergrande is a case risk, most real estate enterprises operate stably, and the spillover impact of Evergrande group’s risk events on the stable operation of the capital market is controllable. In the next step, it will continue to support the reasonable and normal financing of real estate enterprises. The margin of the real estate industry may be better, and the coke demand may be improved.
Nonferrous Metals: the battery factory plans to start a new round of price increase, and the energy metals will accelerate upward. The demand boom continues to rise, and the price transmission is smooth. According to SMM, the price of China’s battery industry has basically increased uniformly recently. Recently Byd Company Limited(002594) , GuoXuan, Penghui and Funeng have successively issued price increase letters. The end of the year is approaching, and the price of lithium carbonate has accelerated upward again. This week, the price of pool grade lithium carbonate has increased by 4.2% compared with last week, the price of battery grade lithium hydroxide has increased by 2.2% compared with last week, and the price of spodumene has remained unchanged to USD 1900 / ton compared with last week; With the tightening of raw materials, cobalt prices may rise further, The quotation of MB cobalt (standard grade) and MB cobalt (alloy grade) increased by 5.1% and 5.1% month on month respectively. The tax price of metal cobalt in China has exceeded 500000 yuan / ton; the price of metal cobalt, cobalt sulfate and cobalt trioxide in China increased by 3.9%, 0% and 1.5% respectively; rare earth and permanent magnet entered the “simultaneous rise of volume and price” At this stage, the quotation of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in China increased by 1.8% to 853000 yuan / ton, the quotation of neodymium iron boron N35 blank was flat, the spot circulation in the market was limited, and large manufacturers were willing to support the price. The accelerated expectation of base metal taper and the warming of overseas epidemic put pressure on the base metal. The overall macro environment is short of base metals, the risk aversion of overseas epidemic has increased, and the OECD has lowered the global economic growth rate; Meanwhile, the US dollar index remained stable at a high level, putting pressure on the base metals. This week, LME copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin and nickel rose and fell by – 0.3%, 0.9%, 3.5%, 0.8%, 1.2% and 0.6% respectively. The overall price rose and fell.
Building materials: this week’s view: it is suggested to focus on the carbon fiber / glass fiber / quartz glass industry with good growth / high prosperity; The prosperity of glass fiber / quartz sand / carbon fiber continues and continues to be recommended; The bad credit of the real estate chain has been exhausted, and the price rise has gradually landed / the price of raw materials has fallen. Under the condition of the expected marginal improvement of the real estate, the brand building materials have gradually entered the layout time point, and the leading certainty is high; The cost of the water reducing agent sector has dropped rapidly, and the leader with new category expansion logic is preferred; The expected marginal improvement of real estate + the acceleration of special bond issuance is expected to support the cement demand. At present, the valuation of the cement sector is cost-effective, and the leader with volume increase logic is preferred; The glass plate is still resilient, the price margin is warmer, and the focus is on the expansion of new categories such as photovoltaic, electronics and pharmaceutical glass. 1) For the carbon fiber industry, we believe that the curtain of industrialization has been opened, and domestic leaders are expected to usher in a golden era of development. Benefiting from the explosion of demand in downstream wind power / carbon composites / hydrogen storage bottles and other new energy fields, as well as the improvement of carbon fiber permeability, the demand for carbon fiber is expected to continue to grow rapidly. According to sail carbon fiber, the compound growth rate of global / Chinese carbon fiber demand will reach 14% / 25% respectively in 21-25 years, and China’s carbon fiber industry is expected to usher in great development. In the early stage, due to multiple factors such as technology blockade, the development road of China’s carbon fiber industry was relatively tortuous. After nearly 10 years of precipitation and accumulation, China’s steady leading enterprises have risen steadily. With the breakthrough and catch-up in technology / product / cost of carbon fiber industry, Chinese enterprises began to form a certain competitiveness. We judge that the industry development is expected to usher in a new stage, China’s capacity growth is expected to accelerate, and lead the global new capacity, and the domestic share is expected to further increase; At the same time, industry leading companies are expected to rapidly expand their scale, reduce costs, form competitive advantages, and usher in the golden era of development. Focus on Weihai Guangwei Composites Co.Ltd(300699) and actively pay attention to Jilin Carbon Valley, Zhejiang Jinggong Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002006) , Jilin Chemical Fibre Co.Ltd(000420) . 2) For the glass fiber industry, the current price remains stable, the overall inventory of the industry is still low, and the supply and demand pattern remains positive. From the supply side, we expect that the new capacity of the industry from 21q4 to 22 will be very limited, with about 260000 / 150000 tons of roving / electronic yarn respectively; From the demand side, exports continue to recover. At the same time, driven by China’s emerging industries, we expect the glass fiber boom in 22 years to continue. We mainly recommend China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) , Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) , Jiangsu Changhai Composite Materials Co.Ltd(300196) , Shandong Fiberglass Group Co.Ltd(605006) . 3) For the quartz glass industry, benefiting from the growth of photovoltaic installed capacity / the transformation of photovoltaic cells from p-type to n-type, the demand for high-purity quartz sand is growing rapidly, the supply side is newly added or limited, and the price of quartz sand is expected to rise steadily; The demand for semiconductors and military quartz materials is booming, and the barriers to qualification certification are high. Leading enterprises are expected to continue to increase the market share, and Jiangsu Pacific Quartz Co.Ltd(603688) and Hubei Feilihua Quartz Glass Co.Ltd(300395) are mainly recommended. 4) For consumer building materials, on the one hand, the Guangdong provincial government sent a working group to deal with the recent substantial default of Evergrande, and we believe that the fear of short-term credit risk is expected to be alleviated; In addition, the margin of real estate financing has improved recently, the bottom of the policy has gradually appeared, and the pessimistic expectation of consumer building materials is expected to be repaired. On the other hand, with the gradual implementation of price increases and the decline of raw material prices, we judge that the profitability of consumer building materials is expected to gradually improve, and the industry will gradually enter the layout time point. Consumer building materials leaders have advantages in brand / Channel / cost / capital. They have the ability to cross the cycle in terms of competitiveness and growth, focusing on leading enterprises Beijing New Building Materials Public Limited Company(000786) , Beijing Oriental Yuhong Waterproof Technology Co.Ltd(002271) , Guangdong Kinlong Hardware Products Co.Ltd(002791) , Skshu Paint Co.Ltd(603737) , Monalisa Group Co.Ltd(002918) , Keshun Waterproof Technologies Co.Ltd(300737) , Guangdong Dongpeng Holdings Co.Ltd(003012) , Asia Cuanon Technology (Shanghai) Co.Ltd(603378) , Zhejiang Weixing New Building Materials Co.Ltd(002372) , Yonggao Co.Ltd(002641) , Wangli Security & Surveillance Product Co.Ltd(605268) . 5) It is suggested to pay attention to Zhejiang Walrus New Material Co.Ltd(003011) : the company is the leader in the production and export of PVC flooring, and the growth elasticity of production capacity will be highlighted in the future. Although in the early stage, due to the rise of raw material prices, exchange rate and shipping pressure, the profit is under pressure, but at present, the export chain benefits from a high outlook and the sea freight decreases, the enterprise gradually adjusts the price, the cost side also drops, and the profit is expected to be gradually repaired. 6) For the water reducing agent industry, the price of raw material ethylene oxide has dropped by about 25% from a higher point, and there is still a possibility of decline; By the end of September, the centralized price increase of major manufacturers is expected to be gradually implemented, and the industry profit is expected to improve. Leading companies have obvious competitive advantages, and new products benefit from the improvement of downstream demand, which is expected to maintain high growth. It is mainly recommended Sobute New Materials Co.Ltd(603916) . 7) For the glass industry, prices stopped falling and picked up this week. Under the “guaranteed delivery” of real estate, the toughness of glass demand is expected to be maintained. At the supply end, some production lines with expired furnaces began cold repair and shutdown, the supply end contracted, and the glass inventory continued to decline. At present, the price and cost of glass are close. Under the high cost of raw materials / energy, manufacturers are willing to support the price, and the glass price is expected to continue to pick up. Focus on the medium and long-term growth brought by various types of glass (photovoltaic, electronic, pharmaceutical glass, etc.); focus on Zhuzhou Kibing Group Co.Ltd(601636) , and it is recommended to focus on CSG a, Xinyi Glass, Luoyang Glass Company Limited(600876) Wait. 8) For the cement industry, the marginal relaxation at the real estate financing end may lead to the improvement of market expectations. With the addition of the recent acceleration of special bond issuance, the cement demand is expected to be supported; In addition, the role of policy regulation of coal price has been fully demonstrated. When the cement price center is expected to remain high, the cost pressure of enterprises is expected to ease month on month. We continue to be optimistic about the valuation and repair opportunities of the cement sector, focusing on Huaxin Cement Co.Ltd(600801) , Anhui Conch Cement Company Limited(600585) , Guangdong Tapai Group Co.Ltd(002233) , Xinjiang Tianshan Cement Co.Ltd(000877) , and it is suggested to focus on Gansu Shangfeng Cement Co.Ltd(000672) , Jiangxi Wannianqing Cement Co.Ltd(000789) and China building materials.
Chemical industry: 1) the leading value crosses the cycle and actively embraces the opportunities of new materials: the medium-term recovery of crude oil is expected, and it is recommended to pay attention to China Oilfield Services Limited(601808) , Offshore Oil Engineering Co.Ltd(600583) . The traditional bulk is still looking for the bottom, and the leading value crosses the cycle. Affected by the economic cycle and the global spread of the epidemic, traditional bulk products in the chemical industry are in a downward trend. As the main body of the chemical industry, the PPI of chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry in October 2021 increased by 31.50% year-on-year, which was positive for 10 consecutive months. It is suggested to pay attention to the leading enterprises with excellent quality and core competitiveness: in the downward period of the cycle, the leading enterprises expand their advantages, and the valuation is obviously low, or cross the cycle, such as Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) , Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co.Ltd(600426) , Jiangsu Yangnong Chemical Co.Ltd(600486) , Zhejiang Nhu Company Ltd(002001) , Rongsheng Petro Chemical Co.Ltd(002493) , Tongkun Group Co.Ltd(601233) , Hengli Petrochemical Co.Ltd(600346) .
New materials: actively embrace industrial innovation and supply chain reconstruction. Scientific and technological progress promotes the innovation of terminal demand and drives the upgrading and development of high-end manufacturing industry. In this process, industrial innovation will put forward higher requirements for material properties and promote the rapid development of new material industry. It is suggested to focus on the subject of industrial innovation and supply chain reconstruction: Jiangsu Yoke Technology Co.Ltd(002409) , Shandong Sinocera Functional Material Co.Ltd(300285) , Valiant Co.Ltd(002643) . In addition, it is recommended to focus on high-quality growth companies: Zhejiang Hailide New Material Co.Ltd(002206) .
Risk warning event: the sharp decline of macro economy leads to pressure on demand; The pressure at the supply end continues to increase. The economic growth rate is lower than expected; Excessive policy regulation; Renewable energy substitution, etc; Coal import impact risk. Macroeconomic fluctuations, import and environmental protection policies
