Industry configuration this week:
Over allocation: securities companies, building materials, military industry, electrical equipment, electronics
Standard configuration: Food and beverage, communication, steel, computer, automobile, medicine, machinery, bank, non-ferrous metal, real estate, mining, media, light industry, chemical industry, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery
Low allocation: leisure service and transportation
Performance of industry allocation last week: the absolute return of the portfolio since the beginning of the year is 60.30%, which is 65.58% relative to the excess return of CSI 300.
Valuation: CSI 300iape is above the 50th percentile and CSI 300pb is above the 30th percentile. Shanghai IAPE is close to the 40th percentile, Shanghai Pb is close to the 30th percentile, Shanghai 50iape is above the 50th percentile, and Shanghai 50pb is close to the 30th percentile line. IAPE on GEM rebounded to the 90th percentile, and Pb on GEM was close to the 90th percentile.
The allocation value of stocks relative to bonds is still dominant. Shenwan industry rose more or fell less, with building decoration, mining, national defense and military industry, public utilities and building materials among the top gainers.
Combined with Pb and expected roe, biological vaccine, photovoltaic, phosphorus chemical industry, innovative drugs, artificial intelligence, new energy, consumer electronics, etc. have cost performance; Combined with PEG and expected g, photovoltaic, lithium battery, aerospace equipment, CRO, biological vaccine, semiconductor, etc. have a higher prospect in a reasonable valuation range..
Money & Interest Rate: the central bank will continue to implement a prudent monetary policy and reduce the reserve requirement in due time.
upper reaches
The Omicron strain continued to spread and crude oil prices continued to fall
The profit space of coal has improved
Lithium price rises, and the profit space of aluminum electrolysis is released
Global shipments fell and iron ore prices rebounded at the bottom
middle reaches
Steel prices are supported in the short term
Photovoltaic enters the upward cycle and lithium battery equipment is expanded overseas
Glass prices rebounded, and attention should still be paid to cement valuation and repair
Synthetic ammonia prices stopped falling and rebounded, while urea prices rose slightly
Express demand is strong, and the price of shipping consolidation remains high
downstream
Second and third tier real estate sales are still weakening
The price of raw materials fell and the profit margin of household appliances improved
Baijiu plate valuation is reasonable, condiment price rise
TMT
Electronics: the prosperity of semiconductor upstream is rising, and the sales volume of new energy vehicles reaches a new high
Computer: smart grid has become a new direction of power reform
Media: China Telecom Corporation Limited(601728) overall layout
Risk tips: the risk of macroeconomic failure to meet expectations, the risk of monetary policy tightening beyond expectations, the risk of regulatory policy exceeding expectations, the risk of industry prosperity failing to meet expectations, and the risk of stagflation
