What are the “expected differences” in the contribution of mainstream institutional funds to the liquidity of the A-share market in 2021? In 2021, the contribution of mainstream institutional funds in the market is lower than expected. Specifically, 1. The net scale of new development funds may fall to 1.4 trillion in 2021; 2. In 2021, the net inflow stock of QFII decreased to 27.5 billion, accounting for less than 0.1% of the circulating market value of a shares; 3. In 2021, there was a significant net outflow of insurance capital of more than 300 billion, or it was affected by the slowdown of asset expansion and the decline of the proportion of investment equity; 4. In 2021, the net financing inflow is about 220 billion, which may become the starting point of the marginal contraction of incremental contribution under the market neutral assumption; 5. In 2021, the net inflow of funds from northbound was about 375 billion, becoming the only institutional fund exceeding market expectations.
Which institutions will drive the A-share market in 2022? Looking forward to 2022, under the assumption of market neutrality, the contribution of mainstream institutional funds to the A-share market is ranked as follows from large to small: First: the net inflow contribution of partial equity funds in 2022 is about 1.6 trillion, a year-on-year increase of 15%; Second: the net inflow of insurance capital or contribution of about 695 billion in 2022; Third: the net capital inflow from going north in 2022 is about 450 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 20%; Fourth: in 2022, the net financing inflow will be about 145 billion, or the trend marginal contraction will be maintained; Fifth: in 2022, the net inflow of QFII may be only 700 million, which emphasizes again that it will no longer be the capital of mainstream institutions in the market.
Market outlook in December: the policy will be determined at the end of the year! Or turn on “spring agitation”! In December, we provided three core judgments: first, determine the “policy bottom” in two dimensions! Considering that the real estate also needs to “correct the deviation”, we judge that the MLF expiration window on December 15 may be expected to open “comprehensive reserve requirement reduction or even interest rate reduction”, but emphasize that its purpose is only auxiliary. The second is the risk that can not be ignored: China’s economy may quietly enter a “temporary recession”. It is suggested to reduce positions at high prices after the rapid expansion of valuation. Third, the overseas epidemic disturbance, or accelerate the rise of A-share volatility, looking for certainty is still the main line.
Industry configuration suggestions: grow “sail” and configure three main lines
The essence of “restless market” is valuation expansion. It is expected to “sail” for growth. It is suggested that there are three directions for Trend Investment: first, maintain optimistic [cycle with growth attribute]; Second, emphasize the scientific and technological transformation attribute of the meta universe and firm layout; Third, gradually allocate necessary consumption varieties that not only have defense attributes but also benefit from “consumption degradation”. In terms of specific configuration in December, combined with the industry rotation “five dimensions” scoring system, the first choice is: power equipment and new energy, national defense and military industry, chemical industry and electronic semiconductor; Second choice: nonferrous metals (rare metals), machinery and communication.
Risk tip: the policy effect is less than expected, and China’s economic recovery is “interrupted”.
