event:
The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on December 6 to analyze and study the economic work in 2022.
comment:
The economy has made steady progress and promoted high-quality development
The meeting pointed out that "this year, we calmly deal with the changes in the century and the epidemic situation in the century, strive to complete the arduous task of reform and development, and achieve a good start in the 14th five year plan. China's economic development maintains a leading position in the world ", which is a more positive expression of the economic situation. In terms of setting the tone, the meeting proposed to "do a good job in economic work next year and adhere to the general tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability", which is basically consistent with the setting tone of the last Politburo meeting. At present, the economy is changing from high-speed growth to high-quality development. It is necessary to make cross cycle design and counter cycle adjustment in time to avoid interruption of macroeconomic operation. Since the beginning of this year, the year-on-year growth rate of quarterly GDP has continued to decline, the marginal of China's economic growth has slowed down, and China is facing obvious downward pressure on the economy. Therefore, it is particularly important to "strive to stabilize the macro-economic market, keep the economic operation within a reasonable range and maintain the overall social stability" next year.
Macroeconomic policy is stable, monetary policy is flexible and appropriate, and fiscal policy focuses on improving efficiency
The meeting pointed out that "macro policies should be stable and effective, and we should continue to implement active fiscal policies and prudent monetary policies. Active fiscal policies should improve efficiency, pay more attention to accuracy and sustainability. Prudent monetary policies should be flexible and appropriate, and maintain reasonable and sufficient liquidity". Unlike the Politburo meeting in July, which focused on cross cycle regulation, this meeting stressed that policies should be stable and effective, indicating that we currently hold a more optimistic judgment on stable economic growth in a certain period of time. From the perspective of overall macro policy, it is necessary to achieve long-term support, which basically alleviates the concern of policy tightening.
In terms of monetary policy, the meeting reiterated that liquidity should be reasonably abundant. It is worth noting that the central bank synchronously decided on December 6 to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points on December 15, which is expected to release about 1.2 trillion yuan of long-term funds and increase support for economic recovery. Considering that the growth rate of social finance has slowed down significantly this year, it is expected that the monetary policy in the first half of next year will be more relaxed than this year, and the financial data such as credit and social finance will stabilize. The possibility of further RRR reduction in the future cannot be ruled out. The fiscal policy should improve efficiency, pay more attention to accuracy and sustainability, indicating that there is no longer "flood irrigation", the use of fiscal expenditure will be "precision drip irrigation", pay more attention to the dimension and direction that can boost economic growth and solve the actual effect of employment, but can not form invalid storage or idling, which will improve the utilization rate of funds.
Strengthen the domestic demand strategy and put forward the "virtuous circle" in the real estate industry for the first time
The meeting stressed that "we should implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand, promote the sustained recovery of consumption, actively expand effective investment and enhance the endogenous driving force of development." In the face of overseas epidemics and uncertain factors in overseas markets, actively promoting the strategy of expanding domestic demand is an important part of realizing China's international double cycle. In particular, China has a very strong consumer market. Promoting the gradual recovery of consumption is of great significance to stabilize the economic operation next year. On the investment side, we will maintain reasonable efforts and actively expand effective investment.
In addition, the meeting proposed to "promote the construction of affordable housing, support the commercial housing market, better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, and promote the healthy development and virtuous cycle of the real estate industry", It is more active than the "we should adhere to the positioning that houses are used for living rather than speculation, stabilize land prices, house prices and expectations, and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market. We should accelerate the development of rental housing and implement practical land, tax and other support policies", so as to promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate market. The word "support" reveals a very strong signal, and the first proposal of "virtuous circle" also shows the importance of real estate to economic stability. When the market growth is blocked, it may cause the explosion risk of real estate enterprises, and the risk will be transferred to buyers, so that buyers will shrink from buying houses and finally enter the "vicious circle" of the real estate market. Therefore, the mention of "virtuous circle" is an important expression of the real estate industry chain. Since this year, the steady growth pressure brought by the downward real estate cycle has increased the regulators' attention to real estate. Next year, the regulatory situation of the real estate industry will continue, but in the face of the reasonable housing needs of "just in need" buyers, we should treat it dialectically and avoid the emergence of "one size fits all" policy. Looking back, the real estate market is expected to stabilize gradually.
We will strengthen the building of a strong country in science and technology, and the manufacturing industry will lead steady economic growth
In terms of industry, the deployment direction of the conference is generally good for real estate, finance, new energy industry chain, manufacturing, high technology and fertility related sectors. On the one hand, the meeting pointed out that "we should accelerate the implementation of science and technology policies, continue to tackle key core technologies, strengthen national strategic science and technology forces, strengthen the dominant position of enterprises in innovation, and realize a virtuous cycle of science and technology, industry and finance", and continue to strengthen the construction of a powerful country in science and technology. Compared with the "strengthening scientific and technological innovation and industrial chain supply chain resilience, strengthening basic research, promoting applied research, carrying out special actions to supplement and strengthen the chain, accelerating the solution of the" neck "problem and developing specialized, special and new small and medium-sized enterprises" in July, it covers a wider range and deeper degree. On the other hand, the meeting held that "structural policies should focus on unblocking the national economic cycle, improving the core competitiveness of the manufacturing industry and enhancing the resilience of the supply chain". In the three footholds of unblocking the national economic cycle - strengthening the market-oriented reform of the supply side structure, deepening the demand side reform and integrating into the high-level international cycle, the meeting emphasized enhancing the resilience of the supply chain. After decades of sustained and rapid development, China has built a manufacturing system with complete categories, independence and integrity, leading scale and continuous innovation. However, compared with the United States, Germany, Japan and other developed countries, there are still many gaps in China's manufacturing industry. Next, the manufacturing industry should aim at product innovation, quality improvement and value-added, better meet the needs of consumption upgrading and achieve higher quality development.
On the whole, this meeting has made arrangements for next year's economic work, maintained the general tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability, made macroeconomic policies sound and effective, and continued to implement an active fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. He also gave a relatively positive evaluation of China's economy this year. Looking back, it is expected that the monetary policy in the first half of next year will be more relaxed than this year, and the credit, social finance and other financial data will stabilize, which does not rule out the possibility of further RRR reduction. In the context of weakening cross cycle regulation, future policies are expected to exert force on the supply side, "just needed housing", high technology, new energy and so on.
Risk statement
The global epidemic has worsened, the economic trend has fallen short of expectations, and China US trade relations have deteriorated.
