[main conclusions:]
Macroeconomic: in terms of economic growth, the manufacturing industry rebounded above the boom and bust line in November. In terms of inflation, CPI is expected to grow by 2.5% and PPI by 12.7% year-on-year in November. In terms of liquidity, the central bank's net return of funds of 370 billion last week, and the money market capital interest rate decreased.
Equity market: under the background of the gradual lifting of supply side constraints, industrial production resumed, the price of upstream industrial products decreased, and the inventory and demand of middle and downstream were replenished periodically, which promoted the manufacturing industry to rebound above the boom and bust line in November. We believe that from the reading point of view, the third quarter may be the worst time for economic growth month on month; From the perspective of demand, it is difficult to confirm that domestic demand will enter the channel of trend improvement. Last week, there was a marginal overweight signal of steady growth policy. Pay attention to the setting tone of the economic work conference. If the setting tone of the conference is positive and the policies are implemented in time, domestic demand is expected to stabilize and recover gradually.
Fixed income market: considering the realization of the wide monetary logic and the increase in the adjustment of real estate policy, although we can't rule out the possibility of interest rate reduction due to the demand for stable growth in the future, the relatively determined trading stage in the bond market may have passed. Combined with the relatively expensive valuation, the cost performance of long bonds is reduced. On the other hand, the fundamentals and monetary policy environment are still relatively friendly, and there is little risk of significant adjustment of yield. We tend to suggest that the duration should remain neutral, and follow-up attention should be paid to the setting tone of steady growth at the central economic work conference.
