event:
On December 6, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to analyze and study the economic work in 2022 and make it clear that the word "stability" will take the lead in the economic work next year.
Key investment points:
The policy tone, "stability" is becoming more and more important. Throughout the whole report, "stability" is undoubtedly the most important keyword. We should "focus on stability" for the macro-economic market, achieve "stability first and strive for progress in stability" for economic work, and "steady and effective" for macro policies. Therefore, we have three interpretations: first, the expression of "stability" is not strange, but it has mostly appeared in the expression of monetary policy before. This emphasis on the overall situation to achieve "stability" shows that the status of "stability" has increased on the one hand, and on the other hand, it also verifies the severity of the current economic environment. Second, the meeting proposed for the first time that macro policies should be "steady and effective", "steady" means the continuity and stability of policies, and "effective" highlights the pertinence of policies on the one hand. In view of the subsequent economic or fluctuations, it is expected that the counter cyclical and cross cyclical or staggered application will be made in the design of macro-control ideas and specific tools. On the other hand, it shows that the focus of stable growth policy is "quality" rather than "quantity", and investment or efforts will be made in new energy, hydrogen energy, digital economy and other fields. Third, the meeting did not change the basic tone of fiscal and monetary policy. This year's fiscal recuperation has reserved room for next year, and next year's fiscal policy may return to the forward rhythm; Monetary policy is entering a window period. On December 15, the central bank will implement the second comprehensive RRR reduction in the year to further release the signal of policy easing. If the constraints of high inflation are relieved and the profits of industrial enterprises turn negative, interest rate cuts may be expected.
Economic momentum, more emphasis on the endogenous driving force of growth. The meeting stressed that "we should implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand, promote the sustained recovery of consumption, actively expand effective investment and enhance the endogenous driving force of development. Micro policies should stimulate the vitality of market players." In the past two years, benefiting from taking the lead in coming out of the epidemic and recovering production, China's exports have grown rapidly and become the main engine driving China's economic recovery. With the repair of overseas production, China's export boom is gradually peaking, and the driving force of economic growth may switch to domestic demand next year. From the perspective of the growth of domestic demand, the expression of epidemic prevention and control in this meeting has changed from "unrelenting efforts to do a good job in 'external defense input and internal defense rebound' to" doing a good job in epidemic prevention and control scientifically, accurately and solidly. " It shows that with the proper and effective epidemic prevention and control in China, the importance of development is gradually increasing in the process of coordinating epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development, and the "scientific and accurate" epidemic prevention and control measures provide support for the repair of some consumption scenes. In addition, in the part of people's livelihood and employment, this meeting specially mentioned "promoting the implementation and effectiveness of New Fertility Policies". Considering that China has raised the fertility rate to the national strategic level, it is expected to further introduce relevant supporting policies next year to better play its role in providing effective domestic demand support for high-quality development.
Real estate policy, virtuous circle as the development goal, affordable housing as the important direction. There were a lot of highlights in the presentation of real estate at this meeting. From the tone of real estate regulation, this meeting clearly "supports the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers and promote the healthy development and virtuous cycle of the real estate industry". First of all, the meeting made it clear to "support" reasonable housing demand and convey a positive signal of stabilizing the real estate market. In the follow-up, the supporting policies should be expected for rigid demand and improved house purchase demand. Secondly, the meeting first mentioned "promoting the virtuous circle of the real estate industry", which is based on the judgment and consideration of the current situation of the real estate industry and puts forward clear objectives for the development of the real estate industry next year. It is expected that the "virtuous circle" will become the main direction of future real estate policies together with the "stable and healthy development" mentioned many times before. From the perspective of stability, affordable housing is not only an important way to solve the housing problem, but also an important work to be promoted by the government in the field of real estate next year. Increasing the construction of indemnificatory housing not only reflects the bottom line thinking of ensuring people's livelihood at present; Secondly, it can hedge the continued downturn in real estate investment since the second half of the year and help steady growth; In addition, it can provide high-quality construction projects for special bonds and other funds, and help the policy "improve quality and efficiency", which can be described as killing many birds with one stone.
In the stock market, there are periodic opportunities in the counter cyclical and undervalued sectors, and the high boom growth sector is still focused in the medium term. This report shows that the importance of "stability" is increasing, and the real estate policy also shows a marginal warming trend. December 15 will usher in the second comprehensive RRR reduction in the year. In general, in the environment where policies pay more attention to steady growth, there are periodic opportunities for counter cyclical sectors such as building materials, engineering machinery and electricity, as well as undervalued financial and real estate sectors. In the medium term, we still focus on high boom growth sectors such as new energy, focusing on three clues: first, green development, such as wind power, photovoltaic, hydrogen energy, energy storage and circular economy, The second is high-end manufacturing, such as semiconductor, national defense and military industry, and the third is digital economy, big data, cloud computing, Internet of things, etc.
Risk tips: liquidity tightening is higher than expected, economic stall is downward, epidemic situation is worse than expected, overseas tightening is accelerated, etc
