Key investment points:
1、 In 2022, the driving force for the rise of major global markets tends to weaken. Since the beginning of this year, the MSCI global index has experienced a large phased cumulative increase and high valuation. More and more economies around the world are in the stage of liquidity tightening. The overall global economic growth tends to slow down, the driving force of the overall rise of the global market will tend to weaken, and the market trend differentiation of different economies tends to increase.
2、 In 2022, there may be a trend of increasing periodic fluctuations in developed markets. At the beginning of the new round of economic cycle, the cumulative increase of US stocks is large, and the valuation is in the sub high range in recent 20 years. Superimposed on the tightening of liquidity by the Federal Reserve and the slowdown of US economic growth, the rising momentum of US stocks tends to decrease in the next stage, and it is not even ruled out that it is prone to periodic pressure. The markets of developed economies represented by Europe, Australia and Japan also experienced a round of obvious rise this year, and the economic growth also began to slow down. Superimposed on the fact that the European market is vulnerable to the linkage impact of US stock fluctuations, the European market will not rule out periodic weakness in the future.
3、 The differentiation of emerging markets may further intensify in 2022. Since February this year, the MSCI Southeast Asia index has been weak as a whole; MSCI Latin American emerging market index fell after reaching a high in June this year, and accelerated its decline after the third quarter of this year. As the United States has entered the cycle of reducing bond purchase and the market's expectation of the Fed raising interest rates in advance has increased, the stock markets of emerging economies such as Southeast Asia and Latin America are still prone to further correction in the next year. From the perspective of the Hong Kong stock market, there has been an obvious correction in the Hong Kong stock market since February this year. In the short term, the Hong Kong stock market still needs some time to build a bottom, and the overall mood of the Hong Kong stock market still needs some time to recover; It is not ruled out that Hong Kong stocks may have a small periodic rebound in fluctuations next year, but it will take more time to digest the pressure if there is a sharp reversal of the market; In addition, as the fluctuation of peripheral markets such as Europe and the United States tends to rise in the future, the fluctuation of peripheral markets such as Europe and the United States may affect the Hong Kong stock market to a certain extent. At this stage, the essential consumer industry of Hong Kong stocks is at the bottom stage. Considering the inflation factor, there may be some periodic rebound opportunities next year. Considering that the toughness of the A-share market will be good in the future, and there will be a high prosperity in the hard core science and technology fields such as electrical equipment, machinery manufacturing, specialty and new technology, national defense and military industry in the A-share; Affected by the linkage of a shares, the hard core technology manufacturing fields such as defense, military industry and electrical equipment in Hong Kong stocks may still have a certain toughness next year. In addition, the Asia Pacific region is in a cycle of rapid development of new energy industry, and there is a certain resonance between the rapid development cycle of new energy industry in the Asia Pacific region and the global rapid development cycle of new energy. There may be some structural opportunities in new energy related industries in Hong Kong stocks. In addition, due to the gradual promotion of the bottom of the pig cycle, the pork industry in Hong Kong stocks may have phased opportunities after adjustment in the next year.
4、 The volatility of commodities may increase in 2022. At this stage, the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve has been marginally tightened, and the possibility of further tightening monetary policy of the federal reserve tends to rise in the next stage, and the fluctuation of commodities may increase in 2022.
Risk tips: 1) the Fed's monetary policy exceeds expectations; 2) Economic growth is less than expected; 3) The intensification of global geopolitical risks; 4) Overseas epidemic control is less than expected; 5) Global black swan event.
