In 2022, the world needs to digest the arrears of "epidemic impact - policy hedging - recovery pulse". The economy is in the aftermath of post epidemic repair. 2022 is the mirror of 2021, and the direction of recovery is reversed. This year is inflation and next year is stagnation. The reversal is reflected in the growth momentum this year (export and investment) from hot to cold. The global dislocation recovery dividend has disappeared. At present, the bright export has shifted from quantity to price. The gap between overseas supply and demand has also dropped to the level before the epidemic, and there is limited room for export growth. The downward range of export next year may exceed market expectations. Considering the high base effect this year, export may become a major drag on the economy in 2022. Investment In terms of capital, China's production end repair is close to the potential growth level, and "carbon reduction" drives the weakening of upstream investment intention; The growth rate of real estate investment also tends to decline, and only infrastructure will rise slightly. After two years of downturn, consumption tends to repair, but subject to the recovery space of residents' disposable income, the rebound range is limited. On the whole, the steady recovery of consumption is difficult to offset the overall decline in exports and investment, and the pressure for steady growth is increasing.
The economic downturn is in urgent need of policy easing to hedge, and monetary easing is on the way. The downward trend of real estate and urban investment determines the endogenous contraction of credit. It is difficult to broaden credit and support the economy. The macro leverage ratio is also at an all-time high, which is difficult to expand further. Inflation, which may restrict policy relaxation, will no longer be a problem next year. PPI dropped significantly, and CPI rebounded moderately in the second half of the year at the earliest. The macro-economy has changed from "big rise" to "big fall" after the epidemic repair. There is an urgent need for a round of policies to relax and hedge the downward pressure on the economy, and broaden the monetary policy or approach.
The profit is in the downward period, the broad currency brings valuation expansion, and the opportunity is greater in the first half of the year. The market in 2021 is mainly driven by profits, and a positive contribution to profits cannot be expected in 2022. According to our calculation, the profit growth rate of all a non-financial enterprises will drop sharply to 2.23% in 2022, and there will be negative growth in the second half of the year. The risk-free interest rate continued its downward trend. It is estimated that the incremental capital increment in the A-share market is 3.16 trillion, It is much higher than the level in 2021 (only slightly lower than that in 2020). The broad policy tone has not been fully reflected in the valuation, and the decline of risk-free interest rate has been observed this year. The growth rate of corporate profits will step down in 2022 and fall below 0 in the second half of the year; while the upward valuation will respond in the first half of the year, and it is expected that there will be greater opportunities in the first half of the year.
Industry configuration: consumption recovery and technology sinking. After the uproar, it is necessary to repay the debts. Most popular industries are not cheap. Look for sectors that are obviously suppressed or delayed due to the demand of the epidemic this year. These industries have the space for valuation and repair. Consumption recovery is a relatively definite direction, and there are a few value depressions in some high-end manufacturing industries.
1） Consumer industry in dilemma reversal: the overall pace of consumer recovery extends from mandatory to optional. Since the beginning of this year, the price of optional consumption has risen in response to the rise of the cost side. After the price rise, the price is rigid, the price of raw materials has a downward trend in 2021, the gross profit margin has room for improvement, or there is valuation repair due to the improvement of volume and price. Automobiles and household appliances are industries with sensitive raw material costs and backward demand this year. The industries with upward boom and relatively low valuation are preferred among the required consumption, including dairy products, beverages, condiments, chemical pharmaceuticals and biomedicine;
2） Select one of the few value depressions in high-end manufacturing: some segments of high-end manufacturing are still in a period of boom driven high capital expenditure. The rise of new energy sales also supports the performance of lithium battery equipment and auto parts. Under the environment of weakening traditional economic growth momentum next year, counter cyclical regulation may exert force. It is suggested to pay attention to the new energy industry chain (lithium battery equipment, charging pile, parts), reverse cycle hedging (rail transit, machine tool equipment) and semiconductors.
Risk tip: the prosperity of the industry did not meet expectations, the macro-economy fluctuated beyond expectations, and the epidemic evolution exceeded expectations
