[special topic of YueKai strategy] liquidity observation: liquidity is relatively loose, focusing on the cross year market (issue 16 in 2021)

Under the circumstances of overseas epidemic and general decline in peripheral markets, Last week (November 29 - December 5), A-Shares went out of the independent market, in which the Shanghai stock index rose strongly and in large quantities, and the large market blue chip performed well. In November, PMI returned to the expansion range and superimposed the expectation of relatively loose liquidity. The turnover of A-Shares has exceeded trillion for 31 consecutive trading days, and the cross-year market is expected to come under the joint performance of large market blue chip and small and medium-sized growth stocks.

Last week, the regulators' relatively positive attitude towards the financing of the second real estate market alleviated the pessimistic expectation of the real estate to a certain extent. The large financial sector is expected to usher in valuation repair under the expectation of loose liquidity and real estate risk mitigation.

Northbound funds continued to flow in net. Last week's purchases were concentrated in the Shanghai stock market, which is in line with our judgment on the "tail raising market" of northbound funds in our previous report. Under the influence of the marginal tightening of liquidity in the peripheral market and the epidemic situation, northbound funds chose to continue to increase their positions in a shares, which stems from the recognition of China's epidemic prevention and control ability and stable economic growth ability.

To sum up, at present, A-Shares have strong toughness and independent trend. Under the situation of clear policy setting and stable economic growth, it is recommended that investors pay attention to the following main lines in the new year's market: large financial sectors that directly benefit from relatively loose liquidity and real estate risk mitigation; High prosperity and high-end manufacturing direction represented by new energy, military industry and semiconductor; Low valuation is expected to usher in large cap blue chips with valuation repair in the style transformation of "cutting high for low" of market funds by the end of the year, focusing on leading consumer companies with strong pricing power.

 

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