Key investment points:
1、 In 2022, the world will still show a weak economic situation. It is expected that China will implement the "wide currency + differentiated credit" portfolio under the counter cycle, and the shortage environment of asset allocation still exists. According to static calculation, the net inflow of A-Shares is expected to be about 655 billion yuan in 2022. Specifically, it is estimated that public offering, private placement, insurance capital, social security and foreign capital will bring about 7100, 3150, 3000, 800 and 250 billion yuan of incremental funds to A-Shares respectively in 2022. However, in terms of capital consumption, the scale of IPO and net reduction in 2022 will be about 500 billion yuan. Thus, the difference between the two, that is, the incremental capital of A-Shares (static calculation), is about 655 billion yuan.
2、 It is expected that the overall profit of A-share enterprises will fall to 5.27% in 2022, but the structural highlights remain. In 2022, a means that the volatility changes from profit to valuation driven, and the market volatility increases accordingly. The overall profit of A-share enterprises fell in 2022, It is expected to fall from 22.55% (E) to 5.27% (E). If A-Shares fall to 3.56% (E) after excluding "finance", it means that EPS of A-Shares still contributes positively to the index in 2022, but its profit driven weight is significantly smaller than that in 2021, and it is more affected by valuation fluctuations. In terms of this combination alone, it is similar to 2013, 2016 and 2020 The "consumption" sector performed relatively well.
3、 Looking forward to the A-share strategy in 2022: A-share will interpret "high-quality development cattle", and selecting high-quality tracks will become the primary task. In 2022, A-share operation has the following characteristics:
1) It is not expected that A-Shares will rise generally in 2022. China's economy has entered a new normal: the economic development model has changed from "rough" development to "high-quality" development;
2) Congestion in some segments has become the norm, but it is not a sufficient reason to be bearish on Growth & consumer stocks. A-Shares may also rely on "rapid rotation of segments of high-quality tracks" to digest and break the deadlock of track congestion;
3) In 2022, the strategy of winning the "leader" by lying down in A-share investment is not dominant. It is expected that the first-line leading stocks will spread to the high-quality growth stocks of the "second and third" lines;
4) In 2022, the daily trading volume of A-Shares is expected to continue above trillion.
4、 In terms of market style in 2022, growth and consumption are recommended; In terms of industry configuration, six high-quality tracks are recommended. "Growth and stability" is an important consideration for industry allocation in 2022, which is configured around the main line of "high-quality development". Six high-quality tracks have become the direction of configuration: 1) new energy; 2) Intelligent electric vehicle; 3) Semiconductor; 4) Military industry; 5) high-end / sub high-end Baijiu; 6) Innovative drugs, CXO, etc.
5、 The plan of the year is spring. In the first quarter, A-Shares often interpret the structural market of "sending red envelopes". It is expected that A-Shares will also interpret the market of "spring agitation" in 2022. Taking history as a mirror, since 2010, A-Shares have shown a structural market in the first quarter, with a probability of 83.33%. In addition, A-Shares have shown a structural market in January over the years since 2010, with a probability of 75%. Many catalytic factors make A-Shares prone to "spring agitation". See the text for specific reasons.
Risk tip: liquidity risk; Overseas black swan event (political risk, sovereign rating downgrade, etc.); policy supervision; drastic valuation changes caused by excessive market fluctuations, etc.
