In February, the blue chip market performed better, and the science and innovation sector remained depressed: as of February 22, the Shanghai Composite Index closed at 345715 points, up 2.85% from the end of January. After the Spring Festival, the total amount of social finance and credit data exceeded expectations, the market sentiment warmed up, and the fluctuation increased due to overseas influence at the end of the month. In terms of sub structure, the main broad-band stock index trend of A-Shares was differentiated, and the CSI 500 performed better, rising 3.10% in the same month. SSE 50 and CSI 300 rebounded slightly this month, rising by 1.58% and 0.23% respectively, while Kechuang 50 and gem, which led the decline last month, continued to fall by 3.68% and 4.92% this month.
The effectiveness of the “steady growth” policy has begun to show, and it still takes time for the recovery from social finance and credit data to the recovery of the real economy: referring to the historical situation, the growth rate of social finance often leads the profit data about the first quarter, and the growth rate of A-share profit is expected to rebound in real terms in the second quarter. However, with the implementation of the “steady growth” policy and the further promotion of “wide credit”, the market expectation is expected to improve gradually.
The macro liquidity is abundant, and the northward capital continues to flow in: after the central bank lowered the MLF interest rate in January, the market interest rate continued to decline, and the liquidity of the banking system is relatively abundant. This month, the central bank extended MLF in excess, continued to support the “steady growth” policy, and had abundant macro funds. Northbound funds continued the idea of “bottom reading”, and did not reduce the allocation of A-Shares when the early market performance was sluggish. Overseas investors are still confident in a shares. The recent fed interest rate hike is expected to ferment, but looking back on the historical situation, it has little actual impact on the trend of a shares.
The impact of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine on relevant industrial chains is noteworthy: in the short term, international energy prices may continue to soar, and the middle and downstream industrial chains are facing cost impact. At the same time, the supply of non-ferrous metals is expected to shrink, and the industrial chain such as chemical industry will be directly impacted, which will bring phased cost pressure to the downstream construction industry, manufacturing industry and other industries. The war will further aggravate the shortage of global semiconductor supply. Semiconductor, integrated circuit, consumer electronics, communication system, photovoltaic power generation and other fields may be affected, and the price increase is expected to rise.
General trend research and judgment and industry configuration suggestions:
On the whole, the current overseas fluctuations have increased, the main line of “stable growth” has been further established, the funds have accelerated the gathering of relevant sectors, and the safety margin of blue chips allocated to the large market with high growth in performance forecast is high. In addition to the 5g infrastructure and new data center, we can continue to pay close attention to the performance of the traditional infrastructure and new data sectors, such as infrastructure planning and new data center in January and March; 2) The real estate financial policy has been relaxed, the down payment ratio and mortgage interest rate have been reduced in some regions, the industry expectation has improved, and the real estate related sectors continue to pick up. 3) Popular tracks rebound after a sharp decline. You can pay attention to the configuration opportunities after the correction.
Risk factors: increased geopolitical risks; The epidemic situation worsened; The economy fell more than expected.
