research conclusion
Looking forward to 2022, will the current core contradictions continue? (1) Tight global supply chain: manufacturing countries will bear the cost of inflation of more industrial products in 2021, and the problems of demand growth and labor shortage in developed countries may change from 2022; (2) requirements for environmental protection and carbon reduction: carbon neutralization schemes in various industries will be implemented at the end of this year and the beginning of next year to continuously strengthen market expectations; (3) The decline of real estate prosperity: on the one hand, the proportion of affordable residential land is increased, and the bidding enterprises are relatively less affected by supervision. On the other hand, the relaxation of liquidity and the boost of demand side are on the way, which is improved or greater than expected; (4) Long term bottleneck of consumption: after nearly two years of epidemic prevention, the supply side of consumption has undergone structural changes. Looking forward to the follow-up, the consumption related to infant care and aging has the most room for growth; (5) Transformation of local finance: local finance will continue to be under pressure in the next few years under the background of the decline of land finance, the continuous reduction of taxes and fees, the increase of anti epidemic expenditure, the limitation of leverage tools, and the lack of support from real estate tax and consumption tax; (6) The downturn of traditional infrastructure: capital constraints and insufficient projects jointly restrict the expansion of infrastructure projects. It may improve next year, but it is difficult to make a considerable range. Based on these views, we believe that:
In terms of growth, the annual real GDP growth rate was 5-5.5%, still slightly lower than the potential growth rate;
Monetary and fiscal policy: (1) monetary policy is relatively cautious. The reduction of reserve requirement in December does not represent the change of monetary policy orientation next year. Directional support tools will be used as a more important means for monetary policy to support the real economy; (2) The fiscal strength is relatively greater, and the deficit ratio is at least 3%. One of the reasons is the local fiscal pressure discussed above. The other is that the growth of nominal deficit scale is difficult to cover the increase of industrial product prices (the GDP deflator is much weaker than the increase of major commodity prices), which limits the actual pull of government investment on the economy, making it difficult for the deficit ratio to have a contraction basis;
In terms of inflation, the scissors gap has reversed: (1) with the increase of the base, the probability of PPI will decline significantly in 2022. We expect the annual cumulative growth rate of PPI to be 4.2% year-on-year next year, following the characteristics of high before low, and it is possible to turn negative at the end of the year; (2) the improvement of pig cycle is the main factor driving the rise of CPI next year, which is between 2-3% in most months;
Investment will become an important factor for steady growth next year: (1) based on the calculation of capital sources for infrastructure construction, we expect the growth rate of infrastructure construction next year to be 4.2%; (2) by analogy with the change of inter industry outlook after this round of price rise and supply side reform, it is expected that the improvement rate of manufacturing investment next year will be close to that in 2018 (measured by the actual investment of manufacturing investment PPI), combined with our prediction of PPI and the growth expectation of this year, the manufacturing investment is expected to be 10.2% next year; (3) according to the prediction of Dongfang real estate group, the real estate investment will decline to - 2.6%. Combined with the above three items, the overall growth rate of fixed asset investment is about 5%.
Consumption has improved steadily, but it is difficult to return to before the epidemic. Combined with the pre epidemic growth rate, recent policy environment, inflation trend and other factors, we predict that the growth rate of commodity consumption above the quota will be around 6.6% next year, corresponding to the retail growth rate of social consumer goods around 5.2%.
In terms of exports, our neutral assumption is that China's export share will return to the end of 2020, that is, the "cost performance" advantage of manufacturing countries brought by industrial inflation will weaken, but the industrial chain advantage after the epidemic is still. Combined with the assumption of WTO on Global trade, the export growth rate is expected to be 4.2%.
In terms of policies, focus on the detailed implementation of carbon neutral top-level documents in all provinces and industries, the implementation of real estate tax pilot and consumption tax reform And industry supervision focusing on income (increase the income distribution management of monopoly industries and state-owned enterprises, supervise all localities to establish a long-term mechanism for the guarantee of compulsory education teachers' wages and funds, and a linkage mechanism for the adjustment of compulsory education teachers' income with the treatment of local civil servants, etc.)
Risk tips: (1) the spread of mutant strains suppresses consumption and manufacturing investment; (2) the liquidity risk of real estate enterprises continues to spread; (3) the risk that changes in assumptions affect the prediction results.
