Key investment points:
The meeting of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee clearly defined the tone of steady growth
The Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting on December 6 to analyze and study the economic work in 2022. The meeting proposed to continue to do a good job in the “six stabilities” and “six guarantees”, continue to improve people’s livelihood and strive to stabilize the macro-economic market. The meeting stressed that next year’s economic work should be stable and seek progress while maintaining stability. Macroeconomic policies should be sound and effective, and we should continue to implement an active fiscal policy and a prudent monetary policy. Active fiscal policies should improve efficiency and pay more attention to accuracy and sustainability. Prudent monetary policy should be flexible and appropriate, and maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity. We will implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand, promote the sustained recovery of consumption, actively expand effective investment and enhance the endogenous driving force of development. Micro policies should stimulate the vitality of market subjects. We should strengthen the protection of intellectual property rights. Structural policies should focus on unblocking the national economic cycle, improving the core competitiveness of the manufacturing industry and enhancing the resilience of the supply chain. We should promote the construction of affordable housing, support the commercial housing market, better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers, and promote the healthy development and virtuous cycle of the real estate industry. We should accelerate the implementation of science and technology policies, continue to tackle key core technologies, strengthen national strategic science and technology forces, strengthen the dominant position of enterprises in innovation, and realize a virtuous cycle of science and technology, industry and finance. We believe that there are the following points:
1. Clarify the tone of steady growth. Compared with the July meeting, the “six stabilities” and “six guarantees” were re mentioned, the “efforts to stabilize the macro-economic market” was added, and the word “stability” was added before the “seeking progress in stability”. Steady economic growth will be strengthened.
2. Active fiscal policy and prudent monetary policy. On the whole, fiscal policy and monetary policy continued the keynote of the Politburo meeting in July, but stressed that “macro policies should be stable and effective”. In terms of monetary policy, in addition to emphasizing “maintaining reasonable and sufficient liquidity”, add “flexible and appropriate”; The fiscal policy added “precision and sustainability”.
3. Real estate is slightly positive. Compared with the July meeting, before the “healthy development” of real estate, a “stable” and a “virtuous circle” were added. On the premise of no speculation in real estate, it was generally positive. In terms of methods, it is also clearly proposed to “promote the construction of affordable housing and support the commercial housing market to better meet the reasonable housing needs of buyers”. It is expected that promoting the construction of affordable housing may become one of the important driving points of finance, and housing loans may focus more on the first house purchase.
4. Expand domestic demand. The phrase “implement the strategy of expanding domestic demand, promote the sustained recovery of consumption, and actively expand effective investment” was added. It is expected that relevant policies to support the recovery of consumption may be issued in the future, and the investment center may focus on “new infrastructure”.
5. A virtuous circle of science and technology, industry and finance. The meeting proposed that “we should speed up the implementation of science and technology policies, continue to tackle key core technologies, strengthen national strategic science and technology forces, strengthen the dominant position of enterprises in innovation, and realize a virtuous cycle of science and technology, industry and finance”. The capital market serves the real economy and promotes the development of high-tech industry is an important path to achieve high-quality economic development in the future.
On the whole, the Politburo meeting set the tone that the intensity of steady growth will be strengthened next year. The policy environment is stable and loose, which is good for the market. We can pay attention to the investment opportunities in the fields of expanding domestic demand and the virtuous circle of science and technology industry and finance mentioned in the meeting.
The central bank decided to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions on December 15, 2021
On December 6, the central bank announced that in order to support the development of the real economy and promote the steady decline of comprehensive financing costs, It is decided to reduce the deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions by 0.5 percentage points on December 15, 2021 (excluding financial institutions that have implemented the 5% deposit reserve ratio). After the reduction, the weighted average deposit reserve ratio of financial institutions is 8.4%. When asked by reporters, the relevant person in charge of the central bank said that the reduction will release a total of about 1.2 trillion yuan of long-term funds, and some of the released funds will be used by financial institutions to repay due medium-term loans (MLF), and some are used by financial institutions to supplement long-term funds to better meet the needs of market participants.
Overall, after Premier Li Keqiang mentioned the need to reduce the reserve requirement in due time yesterday, the central bank announced the reduction the next day, which was in line with expectations as a whole. In December, 950 billion yuan of MLF expired. If all the expired mlfs are replaced, the incremental funds released will be about 250 billion yuan. However, it does not rule out the possibility of hedging part of the expired mlfs and the remaining part will continue in the same amount. The RRR reduction released the signal that the monetary policy was stable and slightly loose. Under the background of downward pressure on the economy, the importance of steady growth has increased. In addition, the RRR reduction reduces the capital cost of financial institutions by about 15 billion yuan per year. Through the transmission of financial institutions, it can promote the reduction of social comprehensive financing costs, increase support for the real economy, and be conducive to the medium and long-term healthy development of the economy.
The financing balance decreased. On December 3, the balance of A-share financing was 1723.109 billion yuan, a month on month decrease of 1.88 billion yuan; The balance of margin trading was 1844.166 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.829 billion yuan month on month. The balance of financing minus securities lending was 1602.052 billion yuan, a month on month decrease of 1.931 billion yuan.
Net inflow of land stock connect and Hong Kong stock connect. On December 6, the net purchase transaction of land stock connect on that day was 395 million yuan, including 57.771 billion yuan of purchase transaction and 57.376 billion yuan of sales transaction, with a cumulative net purchase transaction of 1561.224 billion yuan. Hong Kong stock connect had a net purchase transaction of HK $3.716 billion on the same day, including a purchase transaction of HK $21.698 billion and a sale transaction of HK $17.982 billion, with a cumulative net purchase transaction of HK $2145.002 billion.
Money market interest rates fluctuated. On December 6, Bank Of Shanghai Co.Ltd(601229) inter-bank offered rate Shibor overnight interest rate was 1.8170%, down 9.60bp, Shibor one week was 2.1290%, up 5.10bp. The weighted interest rate of pledged repo of deposit institutions was 1.8155% overnight, down 8.38bp and 2.0888% a week, up 4.18bp. The 10-year yield to maturity of China national debt was 2.8176%, down 5.25bp.
European and American stock markets rose. On December 6, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 35227.03 points, up 1.87%; The S & P 500 index closed at 4591.67 points, up 1.17%; The NASDAQ index closed at 15225.15 points, up 0.93%. European stock markets, French CAC index closed at 6865.78 points, up 1.48%; Germany’s DAX index closed at 15380.79 points, up 1.39%; The FTSE 100 index closed at 7232.28, up 1.54%. In the Asia Pacific market, the Nikkei index closed at 27927.37 points, down 0.36%; The Hang Seng Index closed at 23349.38, down 1.76%.
The dollar index rose. On December 6, the dollar index rose 0.11% to 96.2777. The euro fell 0.22% against the dollar to 1.1286. The dollar rose 0.58% against the yen to 113.4850. The pound rose 0.21% against the dollar to 1.3264. The spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.3715, depreciating by 0.04%. The offshore RMB closed at 6.3750 against the US dollar, depreciating by 0.03%. The central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar closed at 6.3702, up 0.06%.
Gold rose, crude oil rose and Futures Copper rose. On December 6, Comex gold futures fell 0.26% to close at US $1779.30/oz. WTI crude oil futures rose 5.75% to close at US $70.03/barrel. Brent crude oil futures rose 5.13% to close at US $73.74/barrel. COMEX copper futures rose 1.51% to close at US $4.3340/lb. LME copper three-month futures rose 1.70% to close at US $9577 / ton.
