1. At the beginning of December 21, we put forward that the reduction of the standard is a "signal bomb", and the key depends on whether the "big forces" come or not, which gives a relatively cautious conclusion. At the same time, we also put forward the judgment that there will be great opportunities only in the first half of the year and in the second half of the year. This conclusion mainly depends on the two-dimensional model of "credit profit" and the model of stock bond return difference:
① in the next six months, in the two-dimensional framework of credit profit, ① credit will gradually expand; ② Profit decline; ③ The stock bond yield difference is near the average value, and the valuation is not cheap - corresponding to the early stage of credit expansion. In the early stage of credit expansion in history, the market performance is relatively general, and there is only the opportunity of oversold rebound.
② in the second half of the year, in the two-dimensional framework of credit profit, ① credit continues to expand; ② Profits bottomed out and rebounded; ③ The yield difference between stocks and bonds may fall back to the extremely cheap position of - 2x standard deviation; ④ High risk appetite before the 20th National Congress - there may be index level opportunities in the second half of the year, and positions may become winners and losers at this stage.
2. However, frankly speaking, the market adjustment in the past two months still exceeded our expectations. So, in summary, are there any leading indicators that can predict this sharp adjustment? In the first two important adjustments in 2021, the indicators in our framework gave clear signals and helped us make leading judgments in advance:
① the first time: the overall adjustment after the Spring Festival in 2021 - before this adjustment, we proposed to "open up a new battlefield of excess returns", and gradually became cautious about core assets and Mao index. One important indicator is that the stock bond yield difference of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (10-year Treasury bond - dividend yield of Shanghai and Shenzhen 300) is very close to the extreme point of + 2x standard deviation, A clear sell signal is given.
② the second time: the adjustment of high boom tracks from July to August 2021 - from January to February and July to August 2021, we all saw that the turnover rate of high boom tracks exceeded the threshold. Accordingly, these tracks either made periodic adjustment or began to differentiate.
Before this unexpected adjustment, we can only give the signal that the market does not have much opportunity through the two-dimensional model of "credit profit" and the model of stock bond yield difference. However, at the level of leading indicators, we did not find a particularly good signal to predict so many sharp declines in advance.
3. From the short-term perspective, US bonds and US stocks may be the factors leading to the decline of A-Shares exceeding expectations. This logic is very clear after the resumption of trading, but it is too difficult to judge in advance. The US bond interest rate suddenly rises rapidly in the short term. For most equity assets, it is the riskoff model. Therefore, in this case, the assets with large increase in the early stage, high valuation and crowded transactions will be significantly adjusted. For example, in February 18, February 21 and January 22, the US bond interest rate rises rapidly in the short term, and the high-level assets in the current period of a shares: big finance, Mao index Ning combination.
4. From the medium-term perspective, it is unscientific to judge the market of growth stocks based on the macro environment (interest rate, inflation, liquidity, etc.), and there are numerous counter examples:
① in the stagflation stage of the United States from 75 to 79 (soaring interest rates and inflation), the style of small and medium market capitalization in the U.S. stock market has dominated for five consecutive years. Behind it is the rise of the industrial cycle represented by semiconductors and microcomputers, and the corresponding growth style has continuously outperformed.
② after the 1980s, in the six rounds of fed interest rate hike cycle, the US stock technology sector won significantly three times, won slightly once and lost twice.
③ in the time series of the past 50 years, the valuation changes of the US technology industry have little to do with the US bond interest rate, but they are basically synchronized with the global semiconductor sales cycle.
④ in 2010, China withdrew 4 trillion yuan, interest rates rose and inflation peaked twice, but the penetration of iPhone smartphones increased and consumer electronics outperformed significantly.
⑤ in 2013, China was short of money and interest rates rose sharply. The Federal Reserve taper, but the mobile Internet cycle superimposed epitaxial mergers and acquisitions, and the media computer outperformed significantly. Conclusion: the core that determines the medium-term trend of growth stocks is the industrial cycle itself. The macro environment (interest rate, inflation and liquidity) can only bring short-term disturbance.
5. Prospect of A-share market in spring: growth oversold and rebound is expected
① in the 30 trading days before the credit pulse, the overall market fell, the steady growth direction performed better, and the undervalued value was relatively resistant to decline.
② 60 trading days after the credit pulse, the market rose as a whole. Generally, the growth of medium and small cap is dominant or the style is relatively balanced.
③ specific details of short-term style change: Finance / cycle / value first, and then growth. For a period of time after the date of data release, the market is often dominated by finance, cycle and value (in most cases, it continues the previous style trend); The inflection point is about 10 trading days after the date of data release. After that, the growth style will rebound (12 years, 14 years, 16 years) or even dominate the trend (19 years, 20 years).
6. Which companies can still win after the growth rate is reduced—— After deceleration, the growth rate shall be greater than 30%, and the deceleration range shall not exceed 50%. According to this screening, in the growth direction, focus on: smart cars, components and inverters, semiconductor equipment and materials, batteries and lithium battery equipment, financial it and industrial Internet.
Risk tip: the progress of economic repair is less than expected, liquidity tightening is more than expected, overseas uncertainty risk, etc.
